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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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With NFL training camps starting to open up this week, we are diving into NFL futures to lock in for the upcoming NFL season. With the most important part of football being winning the Super Bowl, it makes sense to dive into that market specifically.
So, here are three teams that we are officially putting on Super Bowl watch as we head into training camp season.
2024 NFL Super Bowl Odds
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It should come as no surprise that the Chiefs, back-to-back Super Bowl champs, are the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl and become the first team in NFL history to win three straight. Behind them are the 49ers, last years runner up and current betting favorite out of the NFC. Rounding out the top 5 are the Ravens, Lions and Bengals.
In case you are looking for a real longshot, the Patriots currently have the longest odds to win the Super Bowl at +60000. Who knows, crazy things have happened before! With that said, of all the teams in the top five in terms of odds, the Bengals are the best bet of that group.
Cincinnati Bengals to Win the Super Bowl (+1400) FanDuel
The Bengals do not quite qualify as a longshot considering they made the Super Bowl in the 2021 season, and then came one game away from representing the AFC again in 2022, but it does seem as though they have been somewhat undervalued after a down 2023 in which Joe Burrow spent essentially the entire season injured.
Burrow started the season with a calf injury that he suffered in training camp, and while he did suit up in Week 1, it was evident he was not healthy the first month of the season as the Bengals started 1-3. Eventually, Burrow got healthy and the Bengals went on a four-game winning streak, beating the 49ers and Bills in that stretch, but Burrow broke his wrist in mid-November and the Bengals season was basically over at that point.
Heading into 2024, the Bengals are in a great spot to vault themselves back into championship contention. They did lose their offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan, who went on to become the head coach of the Titans, but head coach Zac Taylor is the architect of that offense so the guess here is that they do not take too much of a step back. The offensive line has been the Bengals biggest weakness over Joe Burrow's career, but there is hope that they might have finally figured that out this year.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) only gives them the 21st ranked OL in the NFL, but they poured resources into the unit, signing Trent Brown in free agency and drafting Amarius Mims out of Georgia in the first round. They will need left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to bounce back after a rough 2023 to really shore up the unit. If they can figure out the OL, then the Bengals immediately vault to a top three offense in the NFL looking at their skill positions, led by Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
On the other side of the ball, retaining defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is a big deal, as he is essentially the head coach of the defense. The Bengals defense took a minor step back last year, as they finished with the 23rd-ranked defensive DVOA, but there are reasons to believe they will be better in 2024.
They made significant changes at the safety position that was weak last year, signing Geno Stone and bringing back Von Bell, while also bringing back last year's two starting cornerbacks in Cam Taylor-Britt and Mike Hilton, who both had solid seasons. PFF gives them the 14th-ranked secondary in the NFL heading into the season, but with believe that they could improve upon that number.
While Patrick Mahomes is clearly the best QB in the NFL, an argument could be made that number two behind him is Joe Burrow, and the Bengals have shown that they can beat the Chiefs when it matters (unlike the Bills), so they are a good value bet to win the Super Bowl at +1400 odds. The Bengals also have the sixth-easiest schedule in the NFL, according to SportsBettingDime's Matt McEwan, so if they can win their division and possibly get the #1 seed in the AFC, that would help their path to the Super Bowl dramatically.
Houston Texans to Win the Super Bowl (+1600) FanDuel
The guess here is that the Texans are going to be a popular sleeper pick to win the Super Bowl this year, but for good reason. They are only a couple spots behind the Bengals, currently with the eighth-best odds to win the Super Bowl. Over the past couple years, the participants of the Super Bowl have fit a couple different criteria: have Patrick Mahomes (see: Chiefs), make a splash for a vet QB on a championship ready roster (see: Bucs, Rams), or have a young QB in his second or third season make an MVP level leap (see: Bengals, Eagles, Chiefs in Mahomes early career). The Texans are clearly in the latter category, with 2023 rookie of the year C.J. Stroud poised to take a big leap this year.
As a rookie, Stroud led the Texans to the 14th-ranked offense according to DVOA, with the 10th-best passing offense specifically. PFF had him as the 13th-best QB in the NFL last year, and projects him to be a top 10 QB in 2024. The most impressive part of this is that Stroud did this while dealing with one of the worst and most banged up offensive lines in the NFL. Their OL is still going to be a question mark in 2024, but they have a bunch of young pieces now with starting experience so it will be interesting to see how it shakes out. If the OL can come together even a little bit, then the Texans are set, especailly with the best starting three receivers in the NFL in Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
On the defensive side of the ball, head coach DeMeco Ryans built the 16th-best defense in the NFL last year according to DVOA, and that was after the 2022 season in which the Texans had the 28th-ranked defense. It was impressive what Ryans was able to do in one year coaching the unit, and they figure to take a step forward this year with last year's defensive rookie of the year Will Anderson now with another year under his belt. The Texans also upgraded the talent around him, signing Danielle Hunter to rush from the other side.
The fact that the Texans were able to retain Bobby Slowik goes a long way to believe in the Texans offense to not only repeat what they did last year, but improve upon that with Stroud heading into his second season. If Stroud can make a similar second-year leap that we saw from Burrow, Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Carson Wentz back in 2017, then it is easy to see the Texans holding the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the 2024 season.
Green Bay Packers to Win the Super Bowl (+1900) FanDuel
The Packers are probably going to be another trendy Super Bowl pick, but they fall in the same category as the Texans with the possibility that a young QB takes an MVP level leap to vault his team into championship contention, this time in Jordan Love. It is easy to forget that the Packers were a couple dropped interceptions from reaching the NFC Championship last season, as they had the 49ers on the ropes but two dropped interceptions from their defense and an ill-advised pass from Love that was intercepted ended that game.
Love had a hot and cold start to his 2023 campaign, which was his first year taking over the starting QB role from Aaron Rodgers, but from November to end the season one could make a reasonable argument that he was the best QB in the NFL. The Packers ended the season on a 7-3 run in their last 10 games, and who could forget them taking a blowtorch to the Cowboys defense, in Dallas, to win that Wild Card matchup.
According to DVOA the Packers had the sixth-best offense in the NFL last year with the fourth-best passing offense. Looking at 2024, Love is expected to pick up where he left off in 2023, and talent around Love on offense is excellent. While the Packers do not have a true alpha wide receiver at this point in time, they have an excellent quartet of Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs, who all had decent seasons in 2023. Reed and Wicks were rookies so you figure they could take a leap, while Watson needs to prove he can stay on the field after dealing with hamstring issues through his first two years in the NFL.
The biggest issue with the Packers last year was their defense that ended the season as the 27th-ranked defense in the NFL. They fired their defensive coordinator and brought in Jeff Hafley, who was the head coach of Boston College for the past four seasons. That appears to be a good hire as Hafley was well-regarded and led the Eagles to bowl eligibility in three of his four years, but he will need to prove it at an NFL level. If Love continues to play at a top level and their defense improves with a new coordinator, then the Packers can go from fun young upstart team to contender early in the 2024 season.
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