What a difference 24 hours can make.
Looking at the odds Monday morning, it seemed oddsmakers were chilling on the Kansas City Chiefs and waiting to see what kind of success the Aaron Rodgers era would bring to East Rutherford.
The Chiefs had fallen to a +700 median odds based on four major sportsbooks, down 100 points from their preseason ranking. Then came encouraging reports about Travis Kelce's injury status and later Chris Jones signed a deal to get back on the Chiefs' defensive front. By Tuesday morning, the median odds for KC to win it all had inched back up to +675 with FanDuel moving all the way back to +600.
Monday night, disaster struck the Jets' season. Zach Wilson took the field for an injured Aaron Rodgers and did just enough to keep the team in position for an overtime victory. Despite the strong performance from the Jets' defense and special teams units, their Super Bowl odds have plummeted.
The Chiefs, despite the good news, still have a trend to bust. In the past 20 NFL seasons, only five teams have lost their opening game and gone on to win the Super Bowl. None of those losses came from the home team. If anyone is poised to break a streak, it's going to be Mahomes, Kelce and Jones.
How did the rest of the league fair? Let's take a week at how the Super Bowl lines moved after Week 1.
Biggest gains in Super Bowl odds after Week 1
While the 49ers and Cowboys did what good teams are supposed to do (decisively beat non-elite teams), the biggest gain came for the Cleveland Browns, jumping 89 percent from a median of +3500 to +1850.
Nick Chubb notched his 30th career 100-yard rushing performance and quarterback Deshaun Watson found the end zone on the ground. While the run game kept the chains and clock moving, the Browns defense limited the lauded Bengals offense to just six first downs and three points.
The Dolphins were beneficiaries of their own performance as well as the chaos of Monday Night. With 1:45 to go in the game, Tua Tagovailoa tossed his third touchdown of the day to take the lead on the road against the Chargers. Meanwhile, their two biggest division rivals struggled in prime time. Miami's increase, up 56 percent to +1600 odds, was the second largest in the league and DraftKings lists them as the favorite to win the AFC East.
Biggest drops in Super Bowl odds after Week 1
The Jets were seventh in preseason Super Bowl odds per the four-book median and won. But as of Tuesday morning, they had dropped to the bottom half of the league, but with the median odds at +5500. Rodgers' confirmed Achilles tear will put him out of action for a significant time. If Wilson (or some other quarterback) steps up, the Jets could be a good 'buy low' option if the defense continues to play at a high level.
Setting aside the teams already at the bottom of the list (Houston and Arizona), the Bears also saw a deep drop after their 18-point home loss to Jordan Love and the Packers. Already in the lower half of teams, Chicago is now tied for the fourth-worst odds of capturing the Lombardi Trophy at +10000.
Change in Super Bowl odds after Week 1
Super Bowl odds going into Week 2
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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