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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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A developing El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean could intensify already-dangerous heat patterns across Europe this summer, forecasters warn, potentially compounding the impacts of an early-season heat wave that has broken records and contributed to dozens of fatalities.
AccuWeather experts say the climate pattern is helping reshape atmospheric circulation, allowing hotter air to surge north into Europe while also increasing the likelihood of prolonged heat episodes. The effect could be amplified if the event strengthens into what meteorologists informally describe as a “super” El Niño, a rare and powerful version of the phenomenon associated with more extreme global weather swings.
The warning comes as much of Europe is already baking under one of the most intense June heat waves on record. Temperatures have surged past 40 degrees Celsius, or 104 degrees Fahrenheit, across large parts of France and Spain, shattering long-standing records and pushing infrastructure and public health systems to the brink. In southwestern France, temperatures have exceeded 44 degrees Celsius, while many monthly and all-time records have been broken nationwide.
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Authorities say dozens of people have drowned in recent days, many of them in France, while attempting to cool off in rivers and lakes, highlighting the hazards posed by extreme heat. In Europe, extreme heat kills an estimated 175,000 people each year.
AccuWeather’s Jason Nicholls said the current pattern reflects a broader atmospheric setup that can trap heat in place.
“El Niño impacts weather across the globe in different ways. In Europe, El Niño can raise the jet stream allowing for warm African and Mediterranean air to move north and spread," Nicholls told Newsweek. "That’s what we’re seeing right now. What is making this wave linger so long is something we call ‘blocking,’ which is where a ridge of high pressure essentially jams up a flow of systems. It’s like an atmospheric dam. This one is particularly strong and some in the region won’t see relief until the middle of next week."
Most of Europe's most severe heat waves don't typically hit until July and August. Should more impact the continent, El Nino could worsen their effects.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that begins in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where sea surface temperatures periodically warm above normal due to weakened trade winds and shifting ocean currents. Scientists track these changes as part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a cycle that typically develops every two to seven years and can last for several months.
When El Niño forms, it can disrupt weather patterns worldwide by altering atmospheric circulation. These changes ripple outward from the Pacific, influencing temperature, rainfall and storm tracks across multiple continents. In Europe, that can mean shifts in the jet stream and greater potential for heat to expand northward.
A “super El Niño” describes an especially intense version of the event, when ocean temperatures in key parts of the Pacific rise roughly 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or more above average. These rare events have occurred only a handful of times in modern records and are often linked to more extreme and widespread impacts, including severe heat, flooding and drought.
When Did El Niño Begin?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) formally declared that El Niño conditions were underway earlier this month. El Niño conditions are expected to persist through at least March 2027.
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El Niño Impacts in U.S.
Whereas El Niño can worsen the effects of heat waves across Europe, impacts can also be felt in the U.S.
During a typical El Niño, the United States often sees a shift in the jet stream that brings wetter, stormier conditions to the southern tier—especially across California and the Gulf Coast—while the northern states tend to be warmer and drier than average. The pattern can increase the risk of heavy rainfall, flooding and mudslides in parts of the South and West while reducing snowfall in northern regions and the Pacific Northwest. El Niño also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity due to stronger wind shear but can contribute to above-average global temperatures overall, increasing the likelihood of heat extremes in some areas.
What Happens Next: El Niño to Strengthen
Forecasts indicate the current El Niño could strengthen significantly later in 2026, with some models suggesting a strong or even “super” event by winter.
For now, immediate concerns remain focused on the ongoing heat wave, which shows little sign of easing quickly. AccuWeather forecasters say multiple rounds of heat are likely in the coming months, raising concerns for regions where air conditioning remains uncommon and populations are less acclimated to extreme temperatures.
With highs forecast to remain far above seasonal norms, the combination of persistent heat, limited infrastructure and evolving global climate patterns could make this summer one of Europe’s most challenging in years.
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