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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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A potential "super" El Nino is likely to develop in the coming months, which could affect the hurricane season, according to forecasters.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported a 60 percent chance of an El Nino developing between May and July, and there is at least a 50-50 chance it could develop into a super El Nino, according to model forecasts.
What Is a 'Super' El Nino?
El Nino, marked by warming Pacific waters, and La Nina, its cooling counterpart, are phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, a major influence on global weather. This system shifts irregularly every two to seven years, driving predictable swings in ocean temperatures and altering typical wind and rainfall patterns across the tropics, according to NOAA.
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El Nino events can cause wetter conditions in the southern states, drier conditions in parts of the north and shifts in temperature extremes. A super El Nino could also suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic but create more hurricanes in the Pacific.
Forecasters generally define a super El Nino as water temperatures being at least 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average over several months. There have been five super El Ninos since 1950.
How Super El Nino Could Affect Hurricanes This Summer
"El Nino conditions are associated with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, especially in the western Atlantic Ocean Basin," Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA's lead for its seasonal hurricane outlook, previously told Newsweek. "El Nino conditions are associated with more tropical storm and hurricane activity during the eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons."
He added the opposite might occur in the Pacific. "El Nino conditions are associated with more tropical storm and hurricane activity during the eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons," he said.
"This could be an unusually active and potentially impactful year in the Pacific basin, unlike the Atlantic basin, where we are forecasting fewer storms than the historical average," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in a statement.
Overall, AccuWeather experts predicted 17 to 22 named storms, nine to 13 hurricanes and four to eight major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific this year.
In the central Pacific, they predicted four to seven named storms, two to four hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.
Chances of Super El Nino Occurring This Summer
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. For the eastern Pacific, it runs from May 15 through November 30.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said in April that there was a 61 percent chance El Nino would emerge between May and July and continue through at least late 2026. DaSilva told Newsweek in April that odds of a super El Nino had increased slightly over the past few weeks.
"We're currently forecasting a 15 to 20 percent chance of a super El Nino developing by the end of the hurricane season," he said, which was higher than the 15 percent chance previously predicted on April 10.
"A super El Nino is relatively rare. If it happens, it would be only the second since 2000. The 1997 event is one of the strongest on record, and it would take a lot for this one to rival that," DaSilva said.
Writing on X, Paul Roundy, a professor at the University of Albany's Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, said this summer could potentially see "the biggest El Nino event since the 1870s."
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