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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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A rapidly changing Pacific Ocean could set the stage for more powerful U.S. storms within months, as new federal forecasts show the climate system shifting toward conditions favorable for El Niño, a pattern known for energizing severe weather across parts of the country.
The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows La Niña is fading and ENSO‑neutral conditions are likely to dominate through summer, with a 50–60 percent chance El Niño develops by late summer. Although the forecast remains unclear, given that weather models are less reliable during the spring months, one meteorologist is warning that should a strong El Niño take shape later this year, it could "supercharge" heat waves and storms across the United States.
Newsweek reached out to the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center via email for comment.
Read More on Weather
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean every two to seven years, leading to weakened trade winds and warmer ocean waters being pushed toward the western coast of the U.S.
This can result in the Pacific jet stream shifting southward, leading to unusual and disruptive weather across the U.S.
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"Strong" El Niños are defined as seeing an average water temperature anomaly of at least 1.5 degrees Celsius [2.7 degrees Fahrenheit], while "historically strong" events see a 2-degree Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) average rise.
How Does El Niño Impact US Weather?
Even though impacts vary from year to year, warming oceans combined with an emerging El Niño raise the potential for supercharged storms, heavier rainfall bursts, and more volatile atmospheric dynamics through the late summer and fall.
El Niño affects U.S. weather in myriad ways, several of which Berardelli outlined in his posts on X.
"So how will it impact us? For one, it typically subdues Atlantic hurricane season. That doesn’t mean no storms - just less active than it would have otherwise been," Berardelli posted. "Also it releases lots of Heat… so it super charges heat waves around the planet and floods too - it all tends to be more immense and intense. And you can bet Earth will experience its hottest days on record coming later 2026 into 2027. El Niño is one of the biggest climate forces on Earth and it has a profound impact on world-wide weather because of all the heat released into the atmosphere from the ocean."
In addition to affecting the Atlantic hurricane season and potentially influencing heat waves, El Niño can also influence storms.
"It also means huge heat will be lofted into the atmosphere, (which has been stored in the subsurface Pacific during cool La Nina) that would mean Earth likely sets new all-time heat records in late 2026-27 -and- it will super charge heat waves and storms/ flooding next fall/ winter (non tropical)," Berardelli said in a separate post.
NOAA will issue its next ENSO update in mid‑March. While it is too early to pinpoint exact regional impacts, the underlying trend is clear: If El Niño develops as expected, the U.S. could face a more active and intense storm season, fed by a warmer‑than‑normal Pacific and an atmosphere primed for volatility.
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