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Speculation over whether Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito could retire during the current term has intensified in recent weeks, driven in part by the impending release of a book examining his career and influence on the court.
Some conservatives, including Republican Senator John Cornyn of Texas, have said a potential vacancy could be politically advantageous ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
However, Mollie Hemingway, the author of the new book Alito, said she did not believe the justice, who was nominated to the Supreme Court in 2006 by President George W. Bush, was preparing to retire.
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Similarly, CBS News, citing "sources close to Alito," reported that he did not plan to step down.
Newsweek has contacted the Supreme Court's Public Information Office for comment via online contact form.
The court holds a 6-3 conservative majority, with Alito among its most senior members. That ideological balance has shaped major rulings in recent years, including decisions on abortion, administrative power and religious liberty. Any change on the bench—whether through retirement or an unexpected vacancy—could have significant consequences depending on which party controls the Senate at the time.
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'Alito' Book Author Makes Supreme Court Prediction
The upcoming release of a book focused on Alito has added to the speculation of the justice's potential retirement, but Hemingway has pushed back against the rumors.
"People have been speculating that Justice Alito is definitely going to retire at the end of this term. They've been doing this for about a year," she said on The Megyn Kelly Show. "And I keep telling people, I don't actually see that happening."
"I don't know for sure, anything is possible," Hemingway continued, adding that the CBS report "matches with my understanding as well—he's not inclined to retire."
Samuel Alito Retirement Excites Some Republicans
Some Republicans have publicly leaned into the idea that an Alito retirement could reshape the political landscape ahead of the midterms.
Cornyn, a senior member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, told The Hill: "If we did have a Supreme Court vacancy obviously that would be a galvanizing issue for Republicans."
"Alito's been great," he said, adding, "I don't give Supreme Court justices advice."
Similarly, Republican strategist Brian Darling told the newspaper that a resignation—from Alito or Justice Clarence Thomas—and an ensuing confirmation fight could be an "October surprise" before the election.
"An October surprise is when some issue comes up that people aren't expecting that completely changes the debate," he said. "That clearly is something that would be welcomed by the Trump administration going into the midterms."
Amid Retirement Rumors, Who Could Replace Justice Alito? 4 Names to Watch
Prediction market odds as of Wednesday morning point to a small group of conservative contenders as possible replacements.
Leading the field is D. John Sauer with 16 percent, according to Kalshi, where the question asked was simply : "Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?" Sauer is a former U.S. solicitor general who has argued cases before the Supreme Court. Close behind is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (15 percent), a Republican and former federal prosecutor.
Two sitting federal judges also rank high. Andrew Oldham (14 percent), a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, was a former clerk to Justice Samuel Alito. James Ho (14 percent), also on the Fifth Circuit, previously served as Texas solicitor general and clerked for Justice Clarence Thomas.
The odds suggest no clear frontrunner, underscoring the uncertainty around any potential vacancy and the wide range of figures who could be considered.
Update 4/22/26, 7:20 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with market information.
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