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By Andrew Stanton
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Republican Senator Susan Collins and her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson are making their final pitches to voters in Maine's U.S. Senate race, a critical battleground that could determine the balance of power in the upper chamber, as a new poll pointed to a tight race in the Pine Tree State.
Maine has emerged as one of the most competitive Senate races of the 2026 midterm elections. Collins is an anomaly in the Senate, as she’s the only Republican representing a state that rejected President Donald Trump in all three of his presidential bids.
Although she’s benefited from her personal popularity and bipartisan image in the past, Democrats believe she is more vulnerable than ever this year as Trump’s declining national approval rating weakens Republicans across the country.
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The competitive nature of the race was reflected in a new Marist University poll released Tuesday, giving Jackson a 2-point lead over Collins, 49 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters.
It was conducted from October 22 to 25 among 1,449 registered voters, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.6 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment via email.
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson's Message to Voters 1 Week to Midterm
With one week until Election Day, both candidates have been traversing the state to make their case to voters.
Collins wrote in a post to X that she was in Springvale, a village in Sanford, a city of nearly 23,000 residents that voted for Trump in 2024 after backing former President Joe Biden in 2020.
“Great to meet the team at Moody’s Collision Center today in Springvale. Moody’s provides reliable service to customers across southern Maine and, as an employee-owned business, it invests in those who work there. Thanks for all you do to keep Mainers moving!” Collins wrote.
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Jackson, meanwhile, was set to appear at an event in Freeport, a Democratic-leaning coastal town known as the home of L.L. Bean, alongside gubernatorial candidate Hannah Pingree, Representative Chellie Pingree and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, according to his campaign site.
Both candidates have also unveiled new advertisements in the final stretch of the campaign.
Jackson, in a new ad, said that Mainers will “decide the direction of this whole country.”
“Is it for the billionaires and Trump, or everyday people like us? We can protect Social Security, get people healthcare, and keep more of what we earn. It won’t be easy, but I’ve learned that if your heart is in the right place, you can make things better,” he said.
He added that he owes “nothing” to billionaires or Trump, but “everything to the people of Maine.”
Collins, meanwhile, released a new ad featuring famed Maine broadcaster Bill Green, who questioned when Maine politics went “into the gutter,” lamenting the development as “shameful.”
“Susan Collins is one of the most decent and honest people I know,” he said. “Now, I also know Troy Jackson. But we're not talking about buying a cord of wood here. We're sending someone to the US Senate, and Troy doesn't have the tools he needs to be effective.”
Green appeared to be referring to Jackson’s background as a logger before his foray into politics. He said that both sides know Collins delivers for Maine and that she is “America’s most independent senator.”
The ad drew backlash from Democrats, who criticized the comment about “buying a cord of wood.” Jordan Wood, a former Democratic congressional and Senate candidate, wrote in a post to X that the ad was “despicable” and made his “jaw drop.”
Jackson addressed the ad in a video posted to X, calling it “out of touch.”
“I know that people like you and Senator Collins talk down to people like me, but this is about a cord of wood. It’s about an economy that Susan Collins has created that people can’t afford to heat their homes,” he said.
Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson: Latest Polls in Maine Senate Race
Polling has shown a tight race as Democrats hope the national environment will carry them to victory in Maine, a state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 points in the 2024 election.
A Suffolk University poll gave Jackson a 2-point lead, 49 percent to 47 percent. It surveyed 500 Maine voters October 8-11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Collins also trailed by 2 points in an InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters on October 13 and 14. Jackson’s support stood at 49 percent to 47 percent for Collins. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Jackson was up 4 points among 800 likely voters in a poll from The Washington Post and George Mason University, conducted from September 30 to October 5. Fifty percent said they planned to vote for Jackson, compared with 46 percent for Collins. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Polls underestimated Collins in her 2020 reelection bid. She trailed Democrat Sara Gideon in public surveys but won with more than 50 percent of the vote.
Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classified the race as a toss-up.
Jackson had an edge in prediction markets as of Tuesday, when his chances of victory stood at 62 percent on Kalshi and 63 percent on Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Latest Developments in Maine Senate Race
Collins and Jackson faced off in four debates earlier in October in hopes of winning over undecided voters, who could be critical to the outcome of the race. During the debate, they discussed issues including data centers, the economy and Trump.
In one viral moment, the final debate was briefly interrupted by a data center protester as Collins was speaking, about which she said: “This is obviously one of Troy’s supporters.” Jackson responded: “Oh, shut up. I don’t even know that kid.”
Jackson’s remark drew some criticism from Collins. Jackson declined to apologize during an interview on CNN’s State of the Union.
“I’ve had four debates with Senator Collins," he said. "I’ve shook her hand afterwards every time. What I’m not going to be is talked down to by Senator Collins, I’m not going to be accused of things like that. I’m fighting for Mainers and I just think that was another situation where she was talking down to me, so I’m not going to apologize for that.”
Jackson outraised Collins 4-to-1 in the most recent quarter, though he remains behind in overall fundraising and outside assistance.
Last week, Collins announced that the Trump administration agreed to release 315,000 barrels of home heating oil from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, which could help Mainers ahead of the winter, as about half the state relies on oil to heat their homes.
Early Voting Underway in Maine
In-person absentee voting began on October 5 and will continue until Thursday. Polling locations are open from 6 a.m. or 10 a.m. to 8 p.m., depending on a town’s population.
As of Monday, 251,036 absentee ballots had been requested and 197,104 had been returned and accepted, according to data from Maine's secretary of state office.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jenna deJong and Edward T. Cummins.
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