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By Ewan Palmer
News Reporter
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Ted Cruz's reelection for his Texas Senate seat may not be as easy a race as once thought as another poll is showing the Republican with a slim lead over his Democratic challenger.
A University of Houston/Texas Southern University (TSU) survey of 2,257 adults showed Cruz leading Democratic Texas Representative Colin Allred by 3 points—47 percent to 44 percent.
The results reveal Allred has managed to chip away at the previous 9 point lead Cruz held over his Democratic rival in the same poll late last year.
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The poll is the latest one to show Cruz, who is heavily favored in the race as the incumbent with Cook Political Report rating the seat at likely Republican, enjoying a narrow lead over Allred.
A Manhattan Institute survey of 600 likely voters in Texas released in early July also showed Cruz with a 3-point lead—46 percent to 43 percent—over Allred. In June, University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research survey of 931 likely voters also gave Cruz just a 3-point lead over Allred—45 percent to 42 percent.
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Pollsters suggest that Allred has surged since officially becoming the nominee and increasing his name recognition across The Lone Star State.
"Earlier in the year, especially before Allred secured the Democratic nomination in the March primary, he was more of an unknown quantity," Michael Adams, director of the Executive Master of Public Administration graduate program at TSU, said in the poll's release.
"As a congressman from Dallas, he wasn't well-known in the rest of the state, but as a result of winning the primary and months of campaigning and advertising, his name ID has increased, and support has nudged up by five points."
Cruz can be buoyed by the poll revealing that 49 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Cruz, compared to 46 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Allred.
The data suggests there are still plenty of voters that Allred could try and sway. Nearly a quarter—23 percent—of Texas likely voters don't know enough about Allred to have an opinion about him, whereas just three percent said they don't know enough about Cruz to have an opinion about him.
Cruz's and Allred's office have been contacted by Newsweek for comment via email.
While some polls have suggested it will be a close race, Cruz is still the heavy favorite to win a third term in office. He won by more than 15 points in 2012 and fought off a strong bid by former Representative Beto O'Rourke by 2.5 points in 2018.
A Remington Research Group survey of 589 likely voters released earlier in July showed Cruz with a 10-point lead—53 percent to 43 percent—over Allred. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll conducted in June showed Cruz with an 11-point lead over Allred—46 percent to 33 percent.
Election forecasters Race to the White House are giving Cruz a 73 percent chance of winning November's Texas Senate race, with Allred estimated to have a 27 percent chance.
Cruz's close race with O'Rourke in 2018 notably took place during former President Donald Trump's midterms. Historically, the ruling party tends to struggle in midterm elections.
Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha, a professor of American Politics at the University of North Texas, previously said that Cruz will not have to deal with the midterm influence this year, and could benefit from Trump being heavily expected to win Texas in the presidential race.
"Predicting the Cruz-Allred race—barring some personal cataclysm that affects Cruz or chaos at the top of the ballot that confuses Republicans and keeps them home in November—is as simple as predicting Trump-Biden in Texas," Eshbaugh-Soha told Newsweek.
The University of Houston/Texas Southern University poll shows Trump has a 9-point lead over President Joe Biden in Texas—49 percent to 40 percent.
The survey was conducted between June 20 and July 1 between 2,257 adults The margin of error is plus or minus 2.1 percent for the overall survey population and plus or minus 2.5 for the sub-population of 1,484 likely voters.
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