By Jesus Mesa
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Texas Governor Greg Abbott is in a tighter-than-expected reelection race, with Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa within striking distance of the three-term incumbent, according to a new poll.
The survey, conducted January 26 through February 3 among likely voters, showed Abbott with 46 percent and Hinojosa with 43 percent, followed by Libertarian Pat Dixon at 6 percent.
The numbers come from an internal poll commissioned by Hinojosa’s campaign and conducted by Democratic firm GBAO Strategies.
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Why It Matters
Texas has been firmly Republican at the statewide level for decades, with the GOP holding every statewide office for more than 30 years. Abbott, a close ally of President Donald Trump, won reelection comfortably in 2022, and public polling earlier in the 2026 cycle has generally shown him leading by mid- to high single digits.
Hinojosa, a lawyer elected to the Texas House in 2017, is part of a new generation of Democrats attempting to break that streak. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since the early 1990s, making any competitive showing against an incumbent governor notable.
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What To Know
The poll highlights what the campaign describes as a significant advantage for Hinojosa among independent voters. According to the survey, she leads Abbott 47 percent to 31 percent with independents—a 16-point margin that would mark a notable shift in Texas politics if reflected in independent public polling.
The survey was conducted among 1,000 likely Texas voters between January 26 and February 3. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The internal poll comes after a recent University of Houston survey that showed Abbott leading by seven points, 49 percent to 42 percent.
In that poll, 49 percent of respondents said they supported Abbott’s reelection, while 42 percent backed Hinojosa, 3 percent supported Dixon and 6 percent were undecided. Hinojosa led among women, Black voters, college-educated voters and Gen Z voters. Abbott held stronger support among men, white and Latino voters, older voters and those with a high school education.
The University of Houston poll found that 51 percent of voters viewed Abbott favorably, compared to 47 percent who viewed him unfavorably. Forty-five percent said they did not know enough about Hinojosa to form an opinion, while 35 percent viewed her favorably and 20 percent unfavorably.
That survey among 1,502 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as “solid” Republican. Last year, Abbott led the state’s redistricting initiative, seeking to secure additional Republican congressional seats in the 2026 midterms.
What People Are Saying
Texas state Representative Gina Hinojosa told Newsweek in response to the University of Houston poll in an email Wednesday: "We're within single digits and closing fast. This is what happens when Texans start seeing the real cost of the Greg Abbott Corruption Tax: skyrocketing energy bills, schools closing, and a governor more accountable to his donors than to the working families of this state. The momentum in this race is undeniable, and Greg Abbott should be worried — Texans are ready for change."
Texas Governor Greg Abbott, in a November speech launching his reelection campaign: "Tonight, we have a message for Democrats and their socialist backers: This is Texas. They cannot buy us. They cannot beat us. We will see them at the ballot box, and we will win. We will defend our culture. We will safeguard our Texas values from the radicals who are trying to shove Texas to the far progressive left."
Texas gubernatorial candidate Pat Dixon, a Libertarian, in an email to Newsweek: "There is a long way to go before those numbers mean anything. I realize Abbott and Hinojosa are the likely nominees, but they still have to be formally nominated, as do I. Events and scandals could lead to surprises."
What Happens Next
Party primaries are scheduled for March 3, with the general election taking place on November 3. If Abbott wins, he will become the state's longest-serving governor by the end of his fourth term.
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