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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) "will continue to deploy all available resources to manage the grid reliably," an ERCOT spokesperson told Newsweek, as weather forecasters warn millions to be prepared for potential power outages later this week as chances rise for an impactful winter storm to wallop a large swath of the U.S., including in Texas.
In 2021, Winter Storm Uri swept through Texas, killing at least 246 people and causing extensive power outages for Texans amid an ice storm and freezing temperatures. In the years since, ERCOT has undergone improvements. Despite the concerning outlook with this week's potential storm, ERCOT said it would be able to handle the upcoming demand on the Texas electrical grid.
"As the Texas economy continues growing, ERCOT maintains an all-of-the-above generation approach to ensuring reliability," the ERCOT spokesperson told Newsweek. "Based on expected weather conditions, ERCOT anticipates there will be sufficient generation to meet demand this winter."
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The update comes as the National Weather Service (NWS) has warned of a winter storm set to bring snow and ice from the Southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic region beginning on Thursday.
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"Confidence is increasing regarding the potential for a significant intrusion of Arctic air and impactful wintry precipitation from Friday into the upcoming weekend," NWS Fort Worth said on its website. "Potentially significant impacts to travel and infrastructure are possible across all of North and Central Texas due to a combination of freezing rain/ice as well as sleet and snow, while temperatures stay below freezing from late Friday through Sunday. Plan ahead for travel impacts and power outages, and monitor forecasts in the coming days for up-to-date information."
Current supply and demand forecasts on ERCOT's website anticipate peak electrical grid demand to occur at 8 a.m. on Monday, January 26, when the coldest temperatures are expected, although rising demand is expected to begin by Friday, January 23.
At the peak demand forecast on January 26, ERCOT anticipates demand will exceed 79,000 megawatts (MW). One megawatt serves roughly 250 homes during ERCOT peak hours, the ERCOT website said. During peak demand, ERCOT's capacity will exceed 100,000 MW, the forecast said.
ERCOT serves roughly 27 million Texans, accounting for 90 percent of the state's electrical load.
When will the storm hit Texas?
According to maps shared by the NWS on Monday, Texas is included in the forecast area that's expecting the greatest chance of at least minor impacts from the incoming winter storm.
"There are increasing chances for snow and ice from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic late this week and into the weekend," NWS said. "There is still plenty of uncertainty in the forecast, which will evolve in the coming days, so stay up to date on the latest at weather.gov."
The day with the highest chance of impacts will be Friday, according to the maps.
Where will it snow in Texas?
Since the storm is still days away, local NWS offices in Texas have not yet issued any warnings or watches related to the event. However, several NWS Texas locations have issued messaging about the incoming system, including hazardous weather outlooks.
"Snow may be the more predominant precipitation type roughly north of I-40, while a wintry mix is more like south of that line," NWS Norman, Oklahoma, which issues forecasts for part of Texas, said on its website. "As temperatures drop Friday into Saturday, the wintry mix line will continue to push south into Texas. Hazardous driving conditions are possible, so continue to check back for the latest updates!"
NWS Amarillo said on its website, "With the weather system later this week, we'll be paying close attention to the track of the system. The track will be a key factor in determining where the most favored area for snow will be. Most of the solutions break down into 2 scenarios: a track more to the northeast, and a track more to the east that goes across south Texas."
NWS Amarillo went on to explain that the first track would bring snow across the Texas Panhandle. The second track would bring snow south of the panhandle.
"Right now we are slightly favoring the track that favors snow across the Panhandles, but we are still 4-5 days out which means details will likely change," NWS Amarillo said in the message. "But one detail we don't see changing is that it's going to be very cold this weekend, particularly Friday through Saturday night."
How cold will Texas get?
There is still uncertainty in the storm's track and its impacts, given it is days away. Meteorologists are still uncertain just how cold it will get, but NWS Fort Worth posted a map on X showing that arctic air is expected to descend through Central Texas this weekend.
Current temperature forecasts for Fort Worth show Monday as the coldest day, with lows in the low- to mid-teens. Temperatures will begin dropping Friday, with a low of 20 expected on Saturday. Amarillo's temperature forecasts are even colder, with a low of 6 degrees Fahrenheit expected on Saturday and Sunday. Houston could drop to freezing temperatures.
Looking further ahead, the NWS Climate Prediction Center anticipates that much of Texas will experience below-average temperatures throughout the next 10 days, with Eastern Texas having the highest chance of below-average temperatures between January 25 and January 29. The chance decreases slightly for the eight- to 14-day outlook, but much of Texas still has at least a slight chance of below-average temperatures.
The Texas Division of Emergency Management has urged Texans to prepare for the incoming winter weather by packing an emergency supply kit, making an emergency plan, and staying informed.
What improvements has ERCOT made to the Texas electrical grid?
Since the catastrophic and fatal winter storm of 2021, numerous improvements have been made to the grid, the ERCOT spokesperson told Newsweek.
These improvements include weatherized generation units and transmission facilities that have been inspected by ERCOT; an additional source of onsite fuel for generators; a scheduled maintenance period; the ability for ERCOT to "bring more generation online sooner when needed;" a critical supply chain/critical infrastructure map; improved agency communications between the Texas Department of Emergency Management and the Texas Energy Reliability Council; and a "transparent advance notice grid communications tool in English and Spanish," among others.
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