10
Loading video...
By Carine Harb
Associate Editor, My Turn
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Texas is facing its largest measles outbreak in nearly 30 years, with 124 confirmed cases as of February 25, 2025.
On Wednesday, the first fatality from the disease in the U.S. since 2015 was confirmed in West Texas.
The outbreak, which started in late January, has been most severe in Gaines County, where 80 cases have been recorded. The virus has also spread to eight other counties, and cases have also been reported in Lea County, New Mexico.
Read More on News
Health officials are urging residents, particularly those in impacted areas, to check their vaccination records and get the MMR vaccine if they haven't already.
The outbreak coincides with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s appointment as U.S. Health Secretary. While Kennedy has promised not to change vaccination schedules, his role has reignited debates on vaccine policies. In Texas, more vaccine exemptions has led to lower vaccination rates, meaning communities could be more vulnerable and the disease spreading more easily.
Newsweek has reached out to health experts to assess whether the outbreak is likely to spread further and to analyze how current state laws on vaccine exemptions may impact the frequency and severity of such outbreaks.
...
From Dr. David N. Fisman: Texas' Measles Outbreak Is Spreading Due To Low Vaccination Rates
Looking at the data for Texas, it appears to pretty much fit the profile one would expect: high vaccine exemption rate in schools—one in five kids, apparently—85 of 90 cases unvaccinated, most cases—80 to 90—under the age of 18.
Low rates of vaccination among cases, as compared to the population as a whole, represents a key index of how effective measles vaccines are—the virus literally "finds" the unvaccinated people.
Apparently, the vaccination rate in Gaines County—the epicenter—is around 80 percent, and that tells you that this epidemic is due to people not getting vaccinated rather than due to any kind of vaccine failure—i.e., if the vaccine didn't work, you'd expect 80 percent of the cases to be vaccinated rather than 5-6 percent. The very small number of adult cases probably tells you that historically, we were doing a better job of making sure everyone got vaccinated.
Vaccination exemptions unfortunately probably do contribute to these kinds of events. I tend to see vaccines as something like paying taxes—not necessarily something any of us want to do, but once people have the ability to opt out you may have a hard time keeping vaccine rates where they need to be for "herd immunity"—that is, levels of immunity so high that even if you import a vaccine case into a population the disease has nowhere to go. For measles, that level is around 95 percent.
It sounds like they have some hospitalizations in Texas, and I hope those kids are ok. It sounds like Gaines County—from what I can see on the internet—may have a fairly high level of poverty. That's important because and important contributor to severe illness from measles in children is malnutrition and vitamin deficiency.
It's highly likely given the fall-off in vaccination rates, the proliferation of anti-vax disinformation, and the apparent disassembly of a lot of federal public health capacity in the U.S. over the past month, that this outbreak will grow, and that we'll see similar outbreaks elsewhere in Texas and in the U.S.
David N. Fisman, Physician and Professor, Epidemiology, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Co-Lead, Pandemic Readiness Stream, University of Toronto Institute for Pandemics.
From Dr. Zhou Xing: Robert Kennedy Jr. Being U.S. Health Official Could Deepen Anti-Vax Crisis
Measles is the most transmissible infectious disease for humans and one infected person could go on to infect at least 12 others. Unvaccinated kids are particularly vulnerable. On the other hand, measles vaccine is highly safe and effective to offer protection. However, given measles' high transmissibility, immunization rates (coverage) need to be greater than 90 percent in any given community for protection. Anything below this rate will be the cause for outbreaks.
The current outbreaks in Texas indicate the suboptimal vaccine coverage. Thus, without a greater public health effort in facilitating immunization rates, the current situation may continue or even get worse.
The vaccine exemption policies, particularly exemptions granted to those based on personal belief/reason, could have fueled the current situation. Furthermore, now with Robert Kennedy Jr., a known anti-vaxxer, being the top health official in U.S., such concern could even deepen not only in Texas but also in other parts of U.S..
Zhou Xing, Professor, McMaster Immunology Research Centre, Department of Medicine,
Ontario, Canada.
From Dr. Nsikan Akpan: Jaw-Dropping Vaccination Rates in Schools Have Contributed To Measles Outbreak
Health officials in New Mexico have reported nine measles cases in Lea County, which sits right across the border of the South Plains region—particularly Gaines County—in northwest Texas, which has become the epicenter of the outbreak.
Another clue is the very low vaccination rates among schools in South Plains. For measles, the target vaccination rate is 95 percent. Anything below that can allow infections to slip in—it's straightforward math. Of the three schools in Gaines County reporting MMR vaccination rates for kindergartners, all were below 95 percent in 2023-2024.
One school—Loop ISD—has an MMR vaccination rate of 46 percent for its kindergartners. In Lubbock County, where infections have sprouted, one school has a rate of 60 percent. It's jaw-dropping. You can't conceive of controlling an outbreak with rates this low.
Most of the kindergarten schools in the affected counties have MMR vaccination coverage below 95 percent. It isn't surprising that the measles wormed its way into there.
Four affected counties have conscientious exemption rates above 5 percent—so the parents of 1 in every 20 kindergartners object to their children taking at least one type of vaccine.
Gaines County is way up there at 17 percent—but a decade ago they were way lower at 7 percent. Another infected county—Dawson—currently has a conscientious exemption rate of 10 percent—a decade ago it was 0.5 percent.
Something must have happened in those counties to motivate people away from childhood vaccination. I don't know if we can blame vaccine fatigue during the COVID-19 pandemic because some exemption rates spiked in 2017 or 2018.
This situation will definitely influence the severity of the outbreak now that measles is thriving in the area. A single person with measles can spread it to 18 unvaccinated people. It's airborne and lingers in the air for a couple of hours. The recent cold spells don't help because the weather forces people to stay indoors.
Nsikan Akpan, Managing Editor, Think Global Health, Council on Foreign Relations, New York.
From Professor Gerald Evans: Without Question, The Measles Outbreak Will Spread
I think that without question, the measles outbreak will spread further. Immunity to measles infections provided by the highly effective measles vaccine has fallen significantly due to anti-vax disinformation, leaving ~10 percent of the population susceptible to this highly transmissible virus.
I suspect those laws are at the crux of both the severity and frequency of outbreaks we are now seeing from this vaccine-preventable viral infection. Given the fatality rate of measles—1 in 1000 infected persons will die as a result—the impact of this will be felt acutely in both the general population and more so, in the undervaccinated groups.
Gerald Evans, Professor & Chair, Division of Infectious Diseases, Departments of Medicine, Biomedical & Molecular Sciences, Pathology & Molecular Medicine, Queen's University, Ontario, Canada.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines