10
Loading video...
By Alice Gibbs
Senior Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
With less than three weeks until Thanksgiving, major forecasters are beginning to point toward warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the northern United States during the period leading up to the holiday, while rain could affect parts of the South.
But uncertainty over a potential disruption to the polar vortex means the outlook could still change significantly before the holiday arrives.
The Old Farmer's Almanac released its long-range Thanksgiving forecast last week, predicting conditions ranging from rain and mild temperatures in the Northeast to snow in the Upper Midwest. But with the holiday approaching, forecasts from meteorological organizations are beginning to offer another picture.
Read More on U.S.
Holiday weather can have major impacts on road and air travel. Last year, the AAA predicted a record 81.1 million Americans would travel at least 50 miles from home over the festive period, making it one of the biggest travel dates in the U.S.
Related Story
Old Farmer’s Almanac Predicts November Weather Across US
What Thanksgiving Forecasts Say
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and AccuWeather are yet to release their most detailed Thanksgiving forecasts, but their early outlooks point toward warm conditions across much of the North. AccuWeather also expects some rain in the South and snow at higher elevations in the West, while NOAA says uncertainty remains considerably higher across the South and Southeast.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a recurring Pacific climate pattern that can affect weather worldwide.
NOAA meteorologist Laura Ciasto told Newsweek that “the latest Week 3–4 outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the northern half of the country and California."
She added: “That anomalous warmth aligns well with the typical impacts associated with the ongoing very strong El Niño. The South and Southeast are far more uncertain because the numerical models haven't converged on a clear signal yet especially during Thanksgiving week.”
AccuWeather, meanwhile, told Newsweek that “the general outlook for Thanksgiving includes some rain in the South and dry and warm weather in the northern U.S. for the week of Thanksgiving.”
Currently, these outlooks do not amount to a Thanksgiving Day forecast. At nearly three weeks out, forecasters can identify broader temperature and precipitation patterns, but specific conditions in individual cities will become clearer closer to November 26.
Where the Forecasts Differ
How the weather looks on Thanksgiving day will vary depending on location, and forecasters differ slightly on how confident they are in their outlook at this stage.
AccuWeather expects some rain in the South, while NOAA says the Thanksgiving-week picture across the South and Southeast remains uncertain because numerical models have not yet converged on a clear signal.
AccuWeather is also forecasting some snow at high elevations in the West, while NOAA told Newsweek that the National Weather Service (NWS) does not issue specific snowfall forecasts three to four weeks in advance.
...
FOX Weather, meanwhile, approached the question probabilistically, saying El Niño generally doesn't favor widespread Thanksgiving snow, but the polar vortex introduces uncertainty.
The uncertainty comes from two competing atmospheric signals. A very strong El Niño generally favors a warmer northern U.S., while disruption of the polar vortex can sometimes allow Arctic air to spill south. Whether that disruption translates into significantly colder U.S. weather, and when, remains unclear.
The Polar Vortex Could Complicate The Forecast
One factor complicating the outlook is an unusually early disruption to the polar vortex. FOX Weather reported on Friday that the polar vortex had been disrupted at the earliest point in a calendar year on record, although any resulting cold-weather impacts in North America could take several weeks to develop and are not guaranteed.
The NOAA seemed to back this. “The forecast is influenced by El Niño, but potential Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) activity is the wildcard,” a spokesperson said. “An SSW can disrupt the polar vortex and bring Arctic air into the eastern and southeastern US. How these two competing forces interact will be important for temperatures in the East/Southeast.”
When Will the Thanksgiving Forecast Become Clearer?
More detailed forecasts will be available closer to Thanksgiving. The Climate Prediction Center issues 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks for temperature and precipitation, while shorter-range local forecasts are provided by NWS offices.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: John Fitzpatrick and Anthony Murray.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines