These Counties Are Projected to Have the Most Extreme Heat in 2050
Climate change and global warming are nothing new—though, some are still in denial of the existence and negative impacts of these phenomena. Though the media lives for hyping up big weather phenomena, actual scientific research and data reveal the earth is, in fact, heating up at an alarming rate. Much of global warming is the product of greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans and their activities. In the 20th century, the world saw a 1.44-degree Fahrenheit increase in its mean surface temp. Since the 1970s, summer temperatures have been on a steady climb, increasing 0.4 degrees every 10 years in the U.S. and 2 degrees overall.
Not all areas are equal in terms of climate change. In the U.S., the fastest-warming regions are in Southern California and western Nevada, rising as much as 1.32 degrees Fahrenheit per decade and 5 degrees overall. Stacker put together a list of 50 U.S. counties projected to have the most extreme heat days in 2050 with data taken from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. These predictions were last updated in December of 2018. Extreme heat days are defined as days in which the max temperature hits above 100 or 90 Fahrenheit. The counties are ranked by the projected number of 100-degree days under a low emissions scenario with ties broken by 90-degree days under the same scenario. Keep reading to find out if your county, or a county near you, was hot enough to make the list.
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49. Collingsworth County, Texas (tie)
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 40 days (+8 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 47 days (+15 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 117 days (+16 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 123 days (+22 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 16 nights
- High emissions scenario: 26 nights
49. Childress County, Texas (tie)
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 40 days (+1 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 47 days (+8 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 117 days (+8 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 123 days (+14 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 26 nights
- High emissions scenario: 39 nights
48. Cottle County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 41 days (+1 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 48 days (+8 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 121 days (+13 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 127 days (+19 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 24 nights
- High emissions scenario: 36 nights
47. Hardeman County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 42 days (+2 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 48 days (+8 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 117 days (+3 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 123 days (+9 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 36 nights
- High emissions scenario: 49 nights
46. Baylor County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 42 days (-1 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 49 days (+6 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 121 days (+10 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 127 days (+16 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 35 nights
- High emissions scenario: 48 nights
45. Haskell County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 42 days (+4 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 48 days (+10 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 129 days (+15 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 135 days (+21 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 41 nights
- High emissions scenario: 54 nights
44. Brooks County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 42 days (+24 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 53 days (+35 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 173 days (+38 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 182 days (+47 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 86 nights
- High emissions scenario: 106 nights
43. Archer County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 43 days (+5 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 48 days (+10 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 118 days (+12 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 122 days (+16 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 43 nights
- High emissions scenario: 55 nights
42. Winkler County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 43 days (+2 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 52 days (+11 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 141 days (+20 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 149 days (+28 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 19 nights
- High emissions scenario: 31 nights
41. Cotton County, Oklahoma
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 44 days (+12 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 50 days (+18 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 117 days (+11 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 121 days (+15 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 33 nights
- High emissions scenario: 44 nights
40. King County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 45 days (+4 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 52 days (+11 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 128 days (+17 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 134 days (+23 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 18 nights
- High emissions scenario: 29 nights
39. Shasta County, California
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 46 days (+25 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 52 days (+31 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 106 days (+16 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 110 days (+20 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 12 nights
- High emissions scenario: 17 nights
38. Tehama County, California
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 46 days (+10 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 52 days (+16 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 110 days (+14 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 114 days (+18 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 8 nights
- High emissions scenario: 13 nights
37. Madera County, California
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 46 days (-20 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 53 days (-13 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 116 days (+6 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 120 days (+10 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 4 nights
- High emissions scenario: 6 nights
36. Greer County, Oklahoma
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 46 days (+19 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 52 days (+25 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 118 days (+12 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 123 days (+17 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 27 nights
- High emissions scenario: 38 nights
35. Tillman County, Oklahoma
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 46 days (+9 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 51 days (+14 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 119 days (+8 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 123 days (+12 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 35 nights
- High emissions scenario: 47 nights
34. Jackson County, Oklahoma
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 46 days (+8 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 52 days (+14 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 120 days (+7 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 125 days (+12 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 31 nights
- High emissions scenario: 42 nights
33. Tulare County, California
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 46 days (-44 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 54 days (-36 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 122 days (-3 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 126 days (+1 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 7 nights
- High emissions scenario: 11 nights
31. Foard County, Texas (tie)
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 46 days (-3 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 53 days (+4 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 124 days (+11 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 129 days (+16 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 37 nights
- High emissions scenario: 50 nights
31. Kings County, California (tie)
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 46 days (-50 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 53 days (-43 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 124 days (-3 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 128 days (+1 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 6 nights
- High emissions scenario: 9 nights
30. Wichita County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 47 days (+12 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 52 days (+17 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 120 days (+14 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 124 days (+18 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 45 nights
- High emissions scenario: 57 nights
29. Wilbarger County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 47 days (+1 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 53 days (+7 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 127 days (+9 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 130 days (+12 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 43 nights
- High emissions scenario: 56 nights
28. Stonewall County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 47 days (+1 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 54 days (+8 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 129 days (+11 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 134 days (+16 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 25 nights
- High emissions scenario: 39 nights
27. McMullen County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 47 days (-6 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 57 days (+4 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 166 days (+32 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 172 days (+38 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 76 nights
- High emissions scenario: 93 nights
26. Harmon County, Oklahoma
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 48 days (+13 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 55 days (+20 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 125 days (+15 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 130 days (+20 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 21 nights
- High emissions scenario: 32 nights
25. Knox County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 48 days (+1 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 54 days (+7 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 134 days (+19 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 139 days (+24 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 36 nights
- High emissions scenario: 50 nights
24. Graham County, Arizona
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 50 days (+24 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 60 days (+34 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 140 days (+36 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 146 days (+42 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 12 nights
- High emissions scenario: 19 nights
23. Washington County, Utah
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 53 days (+27 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 62 days (+36 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 122 days (+28 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 126 days (+32 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 12 nights
- High emissions scenario: 17 nights
22. Fresno County, California
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 54 days (-29 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 62 days (-21 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 125 days (+3 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 128 days (+6 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 9 nights
- High emissions scenario: 13 nights
21. Ward County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 54 days (+4 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 64 days (+14 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 154 days (+30 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 162 days (+38 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 20 nights
- High emissions scenario: 34 nights
20. Loving County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 55 days (+3 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 64 days (+12 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 150 days (+26 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 158 days (+34 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 12 nights
- High emissions scenario: 23 nights
19. Riverside County, California
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 56 days (+24 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 63 days (+31 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 129 days (+24 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 133 days (+28 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 14 nights
- High emissions scenario: 17 nights
18. Kern County, California
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 58 days (-28 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 65 days (-21 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 126 days (0 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 130 days (+4 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 30 nights
- High emissions scenario: 36 nights
17. Presidio County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 58 days (+44 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 66 days (+52 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 149 days (+50 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 157 days (+58 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 34 nights
- High emissions scenario: 46 nights
16. Dimmit County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 58 days (-5 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 68 days (+5 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 171 days (+37 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 178 days (+44 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 92 nights
- High emissions scenario: 107 nights
15. Nye County, Nevada
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 60 days (+19 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 67 days (+26 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 124 days (+23 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 129 days (+28 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 15 nights
- High emissions scenario: 20 nights
14. Maverick County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 60 days (-2 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 70 days (+8 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 167 days (+32 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 174 days (+39 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 95 nights
- High emissions scenario: 109 nights
13. La Salle County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 60 days (+2 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 70 days (+12 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 173 days (+38 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 181 days (+46 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 87 nights
- High emissions scenario: 103 nights
12. Reeves County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 68 days (+15 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 78 days (+25 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 162 days (+35 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 171 days (+44 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 15 nights
- High emissions scenario: 27 nights
11. Zapata County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 73 days (+12 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 86 days (+25 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 189 days (+53 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 196 days (+60 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 102 nights
- High emissions scenario: 119 nights
10. Starr County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 73 days (+15 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 86 days (+28 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 195 days (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 203 days (+63 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 102 nights
- High emissions scenario: 120 nights
9. Pima County, Arizona
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 75 days (+37 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 85 days (+47 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 164 days (+53 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 169 days (+58 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 43 nights
- High emissions scenario: 53 nights
8. Mohave County, Arizona
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 79 days (+12 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 86 days (+19 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 145 days (+26 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 149 days (+30 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 57 nights
- High emissions scenario: 62 nights
7. Webb County, Texas
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 79 days (+27 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 91 days (+39 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 189 days (+53 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 195 days (+59 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 115 nights
- High emissions scenario: 129 nights
6. Clark County, Nevada
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 88 days (+25 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 95 days (+32 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 147 days (+35 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 151 days (+39 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 51 nights
- High emissions scenario: 59 nights
5. Pinal County, Arizona
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 111 days (+35 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 118 days (+42 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 180 days (+49 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 184 days (+53 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 64 nights
- High emissions scenario: 72 nights
4. Maricopa County, Arizona
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 115 days (+24 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 122 days (+31 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 182 days (+47 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 186 days (+51 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 77 nights
- High emissions scenario: 84 nights
3. La Paz County, Arizona
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 120 days (+28 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 124 days (+32 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 181 days (+46 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 184 days (+49 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 84 nights
- High emissions scenario: 90 nights
2. Imperial County, California
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 127 days (+15 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 131 days (+19 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 192 days (+52 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 195 days (+55 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 76 nights
- High emissions scenario: 82 nights
1. Yuma County, Arizona
Projected 100° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 132 days (+29 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 136 days (+33 days from 2016)
Projected 90° days in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 194 days (+55 days from 2016)
- High emissions scenario: 197 days (+58 days from 2016)
Projected extreme heat nights (75°+) in 2050:
- Low emissions scenario: 98 nights
- High emissions scenario: 104 nights
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