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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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Republican Representative Thomas Massie’s primary in Kentucky has become more than a local race — it is now the most expensive House primary in U.S. history and a high-stakes proxy war over the future of the Republican Party.
Having broken away from President Donald Trump on several issues, including U.S. policy toward Iran, the president's "One Big Beautiful Bill" package, and the release of files associated with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, Massie has become a pariah within some wings of his own party and has drawn repeated criticism from Trump himself.
Trump has backed Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and fifth-generation farmer to run against Massie in the primary election for the state's 4th congressional district and blasted Massie as the “Republican Party’s Worst ‘Congressman,’ EVER” in a Truth Social post in March.
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“Thomas Massie, sometimes referred to as Rand Paul Jr. because he only votes ‘NO,’ is A COMPLETE AND TOTAL DISASTER as a Congressman, and a Human Being. He is disloyal to the Republican Party, the People of Kentucky and, most importantly, he is disloyal to the United States of America! He is a MISFIT, who should be voted out of Office, ASAP,” Trump wrote.
Now, Republican voters will choose whether to align with Trump or Massie, widely seen as one of the more conservative Republicans in Congress. Whether Massie wins or loses on Tuesday, the fracture points in the MAGA movement that he has exposed will remain.
Newsweek reached out to Massie by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.
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The Trump Effect
The president’s endorsements have long carried significant influence in Republican primaries, and this primary will be a test of his grip on the party.
In May, Trump backed primary challengers to Indiana Republicans who had voted against redistricting plans in December 2025 that were expected to give the GOP two more seats in the state. Five incumbents were unseated after Trump's intervention.
Meanwhile, in Louisiana, Senator Bill Cassidy was decisively defeated after facing a Trump-backed challenge on May 16. Cassidy, who had voted to convict Trump in February 2021 during his second impeachment trial, failed to make the runoff, finishing behind Representative Julia Letlow, who capitalized on the former president’s endorsement.
“If Massie goes down, especially following the defeat of Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy and several Indiana state senators in recent days and weeks, Trump’s influence will be further highlighted and increasingly feared; but, if Massie survives, Trumps firm grip on his party might be seen as loosening and his sinking approval ratings will be cited as cause.” Calvin Jillson, a politics professor at Southern Methodist University in Texas told Newsweek.
MAGA Infighting
Massie has argued that he represents a strand of Trump-era politics rooted in non-interventionism, fiscal restraint, and skepticism of government power — priorities that helped define Trump’s earlier campaigns.
Trump, in contrast, has embraced a more personalized definition of MAGA, one that places loyalty to the president at the center of the movement.
The tension has spilled into public view, with prominent conservative figures taking sides. Backlash erupted, for example, after high-profile MAGA figures and traditionally loyal Republicans, including Colorado Republican Representative Lauren Boebert, former Georgia Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, expressed support for Massie, triggering criticism from Trump-aligned activists and commentators.
Massie’s stance on Israel has also drawn significant outside attention, with pro‑Israel groups spending heavily in the race to try to unseat him. A super PAC linked to the Republican Jewish Coalition has directed millions toward the primary, underscoring how Massie’s votes against funding measures such as Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system have put him at odds with influential parts of the Republican donor base. Massie has himself claimed that AIPAC (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee), a powerful pro‑Israel lobbying group, is targeting him because of those positions, though that assertion reflects his campaign’s view of the race.
According to multiple outlets citing AdImpact, the race is the most expensive House primary battle in U.S. history. Outside groups and national Republicans have spent more than $32 million on adverts.
Polls and Betting Odds
Massie is slightly ahead of Gallrein, 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent, in the latest polling for Big Data Poll of Kentucky’s fourth district. This was a dip in support from the 52.4 percent he had last month, compared with Gallrein’s 47.6 percent.
Gallrein also led the latest poll from Quantus Insights. It found that 53 percent of respondents planned to support him, compared to 45 percent who planned to vote for Massie. 2 percent were undecided. It surveyed 908 likely voters May 11-12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Meanwhile, according to betting platform Kalshi, at the time of writing, Massie has a 45 percent chance of becoming Kentucky's next Republican nominee while Massie is charging ahead with odds of 58 percent.
Another betting platform, Polymarket, carries similar odds. Massie has a 43 percent chance of success and Gallrein has odds of 58 percent.
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Yes 58% · No 42%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
What Happens If Massie Wins — or Loses
Speaking on ABC News' This Week on Sunday, Massie struck a defiant tone: “I’m the only one they haven’t been able to bully,” he said, adding: “I’m ahead in the polls, and they’re desperate … That’s why the president’s losing sleep and tweeting about this.”
The outcome of the race could carry sharply different signals for the Republican Party.
A Massie defeat would reinforce Trump’s dominance, sending a clear message to Republican lawmakers that dissent carries serious political risk — particularly in primaries where the president’s endorsement can still mobilize voters and donors.
But a Massie victory, while not necessarily signaling a full break from Trump, could suggest limits to that influence, especially in districts where incumbents have strong local support.
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K. told Newsweek: "If Republicans in Kentucky reject Massie out of hand, it's likely his influence will disappear alongside his Congressional career. Voters will have confirmed the Trumpist vision as being the core of modern Republicanism. But a Massie success as a thorn in the president's side could embolden other legislators to be more critical of the president or, more likely, embolden voters across the country to reject this iteration of Republicanism when they get the chance to vote."
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