Three Best Bets for NBA Tonight - Picks, Props & Same-Game Parlay

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With just two days left before the All-Star break, the NBA has a packed slate on Wednesday. Twenty teams are in action across ten games including a marquee matchup in the Eastern Conference between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Philadelphia 76ers.

The odds for all ten games are set out in the table below (point spread, moneyline and game total). Under the table, find today's picks.

NBA Odds for Wednesday, Feb. 15

San Antonio Spurs vs. Charlotte Hornets+6.5 (-115)/-6.5 (-105)+210/-250O 239.5 (-110)/U 239.5 (-110)
Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers+2.5 (-110)/-2.5 (-110)+120/-140OFF
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Philadelphia 76ers+2.5 (-115)/-2.5 (-105)+120/-140O 216.5(-110)/ U 216.5 (-110)
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks+2.5 (-105)/-2.5 (-115)+125/-145O 233.5 (-110)/U 233.5 (-110)
Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets-1 (-105)/+1 (-115)-110/-110OFF
Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics+9.5 (-110)/-9.5 (-110)+350/-435OFF
Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies+7.5 (-110)/-7.5 (-110)+255/-305O 239 (-110)/U 239 (-110)
Houston Rockets vs. OKC Thunder+9.5 (-115)/-9.5 (-105)+340/-425O 236 (-110)/U 236 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets+7 (-110)/-7 (-110)+240/-285OFF
New Orleans Pelicans vs. L.A. Lakers+3 (-110)/-3 (-110)+130/-150OFF

Wednesday's NBA odds feature a number of narrow spreads. Five of the ten games on the schedule have a point spread of three or fewer. Two matchups share the largest spread of the day, with the Boston Celtics laying 9.5 points at home to the Detroit Pistons and the OKC Thunder also laying 9.5 at home to the Houston Rockets.

The smallest spread of the day is found in the Miami vs. Brooklyn matchup, where the Heat are slim one-point road chalk.

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Pick #1: Neither team to reach 30 points in 1st quarter (+105)

Wednesday's matchup between the Cavaliers and 76ers features two offenses that play at a sluggish pace (30th and 25th in pace, respectively) going up against two defenses that rank top ten in efficiency (1st and 6th in Defensive Rating, respectively).

The first-quarter props at DraftKings set three-way odds on the first team to reach 30 points, with the Cavs at +250, the Sixers at +215, and neither at +105.

Both offenses are averaging under 30 points in the first quarter this season (29.6 for Philadelphia and 28.4 for Cleveland) and both defenses are holding opponents well under that number. Cleveland has the best first-quarter scoring defense in the NBA at 26.4 while Philadelphia is 7th at 27.7.

The averages suggest the first quarter is most-likely to end 28-27 for the Sixers. Getting plus-money on neither team to reach 30 points is a mistake.

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Pick #2: Kyrie Irving under 26.5 points (-115)

Last Wednesday, I faded Kyrie Irving in his first game with the Dallas Mavericks and it paid off. I'm going back to that well this week with Dallas in Denver facing the Nuggets at 7.5-point underdogs.

Irving's over/under point total has been set at 26.5, which is about half a point under his season average (27.1) and nearly two points under his average through four games with his new team (28.3).

In the two games when Kyrie exceeded 26.5 points with Dallas, he was facing fast-paced teams with uninspiring defense. He dropped 28 against Sacramento, which ranks 10th in tempo and 23rd in Defensive Efficiency, and 36 against Minnesota, which ranks 6th in pace and 11th in Defensive Efficiency.

The Nuggets hold the top seed in the Western Conference, play at a below-average pace (19th) and have an above-average defense (13th in Defensive Rating). Irving also logged 40-plus minutes on both games when he went over 26 points. He's highly unlikely to do that at altitude in Denver.







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Pick #3: same-game parlay - Knicks moneyline + under 233.5 (+329)

Today's same-game parlay comes from the Knicks/Hawks matchup in Atlanta. New York comes into this one hot, winning two straight and four of five. The Knicks are also one of the few teams in the league with a better record on the road (16-12) than at home (16-15).

The Hawks have defended their home court decently (15-11) but are far from dominant at State Farm Arena. The Knicks also have a better point differential on the season (+1.9 to 0.0), a better Offensive Rating (115.6 to 113.9), and a better Defensive Rating (113.9 to 114.1). They have been a slightly better team basically across the board. Their +125 moneyline is a wager I would back on its own.

But the analytics also suggest the total for this game (233.5) is too high. New York's games this season are averaging just 226.9 points, while Atlanta is right at 233.4. If the methodical Knicks, who play at the fourth-slowest pace in the league, are able to control the tempo - as I expect they will - this game should end in the 220s.

NBA season betting record: 3-0 (+3.99 units)

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