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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Betting markets are swinging sharply against Representative Tony Gonzales of Texas following a forced runoff in his Republican primary after he admitted to an affair with a former staffer who later died by suicide.
Newsweek contacted Gonzales' office for comment via email outside regular business hours.
Why It Matters
Gonzales, a three‑term Republican incumbent, is heading into a runoff after failing to secure a majority in a closely watched primary.
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His admission of an affair and an ongoing House Ethics Committee investigation have added new pressure at a critical moment in the race.
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What To Know
The Republican primary in Texas' 23rd Congressional District is heading to a runoff after no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright.
With an estimated 99 percent of votes counted, gun manufacturer Brandon Herrera led the field with 23,857 votes, or 43.3 percent, according to the Associated Press.
Gonzales followed closely with 22,979 votes, or 41.7 percent.
Marine Corps veteran Keith Barton finished third with 8.5 percent. Former Representative Francisco "Quico" Canseco, who held the seat from 2011 to 2013, received 6.5 percent.
The outcome forces Gonzales into a May runoff against Herrera, a YouTube gun‑rights influencer who narrowly lost to Gonzales in the 2024 primary.
The runoff comes as Gonzales publicly acknowledged that he had an affair with Regina Ann Santos‑Aviles, a former aide who died by suicide in September.
Santos‑Aviles, 35, set herself on fire in the backyard of her home in Uvalde, Texas. The Bexar County medical examiner later ruled her death a suicide.
Gonzales said he had not spoken with Santos‑Aviles for more than a year before her suicide and denied any connection to her death.
On Wednesday, the House Ethics Committee decided to open an investigation into allegations involving Gonzales, including sexual misconduct toward an employee and whether he dispensed special favors or privileges.
Despite the controversy, Gonzales has said he does not plan to step aside and has insisted that additional facts will emerge as the investigation proceeds.
Prediction Markets Shift Sharply Against Gonzales
Betting markets tracking the Republican primary in Texas' 23rd Congressional District have moved decisively in Herrera's favor following the primary results and Gonzales' admission.
On Polymarket, Herrera was priced at a 91 percent chance of winning the nomination, compared with 9 percent for Gonzales at the time of writing.
Trading volume in the market stood at more than $30,000, with Herrera contracts trading near 94 cents, implying strong confidence among traders.
Kalshi, a U.S.‑regulated prediction market, showed similar odds.
Herrera was listed with a 91 percent chance of victory, while Gonzales stood at about 10 percent.
Kalshi's market reflected almost all votes counted and assigned Gonzales long‑shot odds despite his narrow first‑round deficit.
What Is a Prediction Market?
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to real‑world outcomes, such as election results.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to new information, with higher prices generally reflecting greater confidence in a particular outcome, though markets are not polls and can be influenced by speculation.
When Is the Primary Runoff?
The Republican primary runoff election in Texas' 23rd Congressional District is scheduled for May 26.
What People Are Saying
Representative Tony Gonzales of Texas told the conservative media personality known as Joe Pags: "I made a mistake, and I had a lapse in judgment, and there was a lack of faith, and I take full responsibility for those actions. Since then, I've reconciled with my wife, Angel. I've asked God to forgive me, which he has, and my faith is as strong as ever."
He added: "The facts are I hadn't spoken with Miss Santos since June of 2024. She passed September of 2025. That was over a year ago. So this is what I think is important as well, is this whole notion that I had anything to do with her death. I had absolutely nothing to do with her tragic passing, and in fact, I was shocked just as much as everyone else was."
House Ethics Committee Chair Michael Guest and Ranking Member Mark DeSaulnier said in a joint statement on Wednesday: "The Committee voted to establish an Investigative Subcommittee. Pursuant to the Committee's action, at this time, the Investigative Subcommittee shall have jurisdiction to determine whether Representative Tony Gonzales violated the Code of Official Conduct or any law, rule, regulation, or other applicable standard of conduct in the performance of his duties or the discharge of his responsibilities, with respect to allegations that he may have: (1) engaged in sexual misconduct toward an individual employed in his congressional office; and/or (2) discriminated unfairly by dispensing special favors or privileges."
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson told CNN on Wednesday, when asked whether he was concerned that Gonzales had not addressed the allegations: "I've encouraged him to address it publicly, the voters have spoken."
What Happens Next
Attention now shifts to the runoff campaign, where both candidates are expected to intensify messaging and fundraising amid heightened national scrutiny.
The ethics investigation and continued movement in betting markets are likely to remain part of the broader political backdrop as the race enters its final phase.
If you or someone you know is considering suicide, contact the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline by dialing 988, text "988" to the Crisis Text Line at 741741 or go to 988lifeline.org.
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