Tour Championship 2020: Latest Odds, Best Picks for FedEx Cup Season Finale

Dustin Johnson is the man to beat as the PGA Tour season reaches its finale with the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club, Georgia, this weekend.

The world No. 1 will start the final event of the FedEx Cup playoffs at 10-under par, as for the second consecutive year the PGA Tour season finale will feature a staggered scoring start system.

World No. 2 and world No. 3 Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas will start at 8-under and 7-under respectively, while Webb Simpson and Collin Morikawa, the fourth and fifth-ranked players in the FedEx Cup standings, will begin at 6-under and 5-under respectively.

Since the PGA Tour resumed in June, Johnson, Rahm, Morikawa and Thomas have won a combined seven of the 11 tournaments at least one of them has entered and the run could well be extended this weekend.

With that in mind, here's a look at the bookmakers' favorites to win the Tour Championship.

Dustin Johnson

Johnson is a 37/20 favorite with FanDuel, while DraftKing and BetMGM have him at 47/25 and 19/10 favorite respectively. While it may seem obvious to highlight the current world No.1 and FedEx Cup leader as the man to beat, the 36-year-old's recent form speaks for itself. In his last three starts, Johnson has finished tied for second at the PGA Championship, won The Northern Trust and second at the BMW Championship last week, when only Jon Rahm's monster 66-foot put denied him a second consecutive win.

His record at East Lake, however, is less encouraging. Between 2009 and 2011, Johnson finished 22nd or below for three straight years and 12 months ago he finished dead last in scoring over the four rounds at 13-over par, despite starting at 3-under. Admittedly, Johnson finished third at East Lake in 2016 and a similar vein of form will be required if he is to finish the season on a high.

Jon Rahm

Whatever happens at East Lake, Rahm won't forget the 2020 season in a hurry. Having briefly claimed the top spot in the world's rankings earlier this year, the Spaniard clinched a famous with at the BMW Championship last week, sinking an incredible 66-foot putt to defeat Johnson in a playoff.

A 14/5 and 11/4 second-favorite with FanDuel and DraftKings respectively, Rahm has never finished lower than 12th in three starts at East Lake and will be looking to improve his record as he starts two shots adrift of Johnson on Friday.

Justin Thomas

A year ago, Thomas was in the same position Johnson finds himself in this week but a difficult opening round derailed his tournament and he finished five shots adrift of eventual winner Rory McIlroy. This week there should be considerably less pressure on Thomas, who arrives at East Lake as the world No. 3 and the only player in the field with three wins under his belt this season.

A 5/1 third-favorite, Thomas will start three shots adrift of Johnson at 7-under and will be looking to continue his excellent run of form at East Lake, where he ranks fourth in strokes gained/tee to green average among the 30-player field and where he finished third last year, seventh in 2018 and second and sixth in the previous two years respectively.

Justin Thomas, PGA Tour
Justin Thomas plays a shot during a practice round prior to the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club on September 2 in Atlanta, Georgia. Sam Greenwood/Getty

Webb Simpson

Simpson begins the tournament as a 10/1 shot with most bookmakers and he will tee off at 6-under, four shots adrift of Johnson. The 2012 U.S. Open winner should be well-rested after opting to skip the BMW Championship last week, a gamble that paid off as Simpson lost only one stroke in the FedEx Cup standings despite not playing at Olympia Fields, Illinois.

Simpson has two wins and eight top-10 finishes in 13 PGA Tour starts this year. Crucially both of his wins came on courses that, like East Lake this weekend, featured Bermuda grass greens. In five starts on Bermuda grass this season, Simpson also has two third-place and a 12th-place finish, making him one of the players to keep an eye out for this weekend.

Rory McIlroy

The four-time major winner is a 20/1 and 22/1 outsider with FanDuel and DraftKing respectively, largely due to the fact he will start the tournament seven shots adrift of Johnson at 3-under. That is if the Northern Irishman even tees off to begin with, given his wife, Erica, gave birth to their first child earlier this week.

Understandably, McIlroy last week indicated he'd be willing to withdraw from the season finale to attend the birth of his daughter. However, should he feature this weekend, McIlroy could represent excellent value for money on a course where he has won twice in his last three starts.