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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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Four states are at risk of seeing impacts from Tropical Storm Chantal should it form over the holiday weekend.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that if the storm appears this weekend, it will be well ahead of schedule for the season, as the average third storm of a hurricane season typically forms around August 3.
Why It Matters
If it forms, Tropical Storm Chantal will be the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1. The first storm, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed last week and caused no United States-related impacts. Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Bay of Campeche last weekend and impacted Eastern Mexico.
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What To Know
The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring a disturbance near Florida throughout this week. The chances that the disturbance will form into a tropical storm have steadily increased.
As of Wednesday afternoon, chances of formation within the next seven days were at 40 percent. On Tuesday, there was a 30 percent chance, and on Monday, a 20 percent chance. The chances that the storm will form within the next 48 hours remain near zero.
The disturbance area has shifted slightly north, highlighting Florida and the southeast coast of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina as having potential for development.
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DaSilva told Newsweek that AccuWeather anticipates the southeast coast of the U.S. has a higher chance of development compared to the Gulf side. If it forms, it will likely do so between July 5 and 7.
Regardless, DaSilva said there will be a rainy weather pattern for Florida and parts of the U.S. Southeast this weekend. Rain could also hit the Carolinas.
"It does not look like this is going to blow up into a hurricane or anything like that," DaSilva said. "The environmental conditions are not favorable for that."
What People Are Saying
The National Hurricane Center said in a forecast: "An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system moves little.
"Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast."
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: "We call that homegrown development because it's basically developing close to home. This type of development is very common early in the season and also late in the season."
DaSilva added, "There's nothing unusual about this. This is the area you'd be looking this time of the year."
What Happens Next
If the storm develops, it is expected to do so between July 5 and 7. Florida and the U.S. Southeast can expect a rainy weekend either way.
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