Tropical System in Gulf (Invest 95L) Spaghetti Models: Storm Tracking Toward Mexico, Texas, Louisiana

Invest 95L Spaghetti Models
Invest 95L forecast models show the system could hit Mexico, Texas or Louisiana late this week. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 70 percent chance of development within two days. stormvistawxmodels.com

A new tropical system is likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, threatening Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week, according to the latest forecast.

The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday afternoon gave invest 95L a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression within 48 hours. The system, located in the central Gulf of Mexico, was indicated satellite images and surface observations as a broad area of low pressure that formed with likelihood to further develop.

The system would likely be named Tropical Storm Kirk if it develops since Joyce was put into action Wednesday. Invest 95L remains unorganized, but the National Hurricane Center said the storm is likely to impact Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week regardless with heavy rainfall.

“Although the shower activity is still disorganized, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and it is likely that a tropical depression will form on Thursday before the system reaches the western Gulf coast,” the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday afternoon.  “Another reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow. 

“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local weather office.” 

The latest storm spaghetti models show the disturbance is currently tracking toward somewhere between Matamoros, Mexico or San Antonio, Texas. One model run does take it to Louisiana. Regardless, that entire region could get the impact late this week. 

“Forecasters with the National Weather Service's Slidell office said the disturbance is expected to stay west of New Orleans, but it could impact western coastal waters and possibly bring seas up three to five feet,” nola.com reported Wednesday.

“Rainfall totals are expected to be fairly low in the New Orleans area, but higher farther west.”