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President Donald Trump is facing one of the most brutal weeks of his political career in the polls, with three major pollsters this week finding his approval rating at the lowest point of his second time in office.
An AP-NORC poll conducted July 23-27 found just 33 percent of Americans approve of Trump's job performance, down 4 points from the center's prior survey, while 66 percent disapprove, up 4 points. It is the lowest approval rating Trump has recorded in AP-NORC polling since the start of his second term.
A Quinnipiac University national poll, also fielded July 23-27, found 32 percent of registered voters approve of Trump's job performance, while 58 percent disapprove. Quinnipiac's polling analyst, Tim Malloy, called it the lowest approval rating Trump has ever recorded in a Quinnipiac University poll, spanning both of his terms in office.
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A CNN poll conducted by SSRS put Trump's approval at 34 percent, matching the career low he last hit at the close of his first term, in the aftermath of the January 6 insurrection. Half of Americans now strongly disapprove of him, a high across both of his terms, while a record-low 15 percent strongly approve.
Iran War Weighs Heavily on All Three Surveys
The polls landed as a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran collapsed, and each found deep public unease about the conflict.
In the CNN poll, just 28 percent approve of Trump's handling of the situation in Iran, one of his weakest ratings on any issue tested. Only about a quarter of respondents think Trump has a clear plan for handling the conflict, down from 40 percent at the start of the war, and 62 percent now say he is not an effective world leader, up from 54 percent early in his second term. Just 25 percent say the war has been worth the toll in American lives and dollars, with younger adults particularly skeptical.
The Quinnipiac poll found similarly grim numbers for the president: just 28 percent of voters approve of the way Trump is handling the situation with Iran, while 66 percent disapprove. Support for the underlying U.S. military action against Iran fares only slightly better, with 34 percent in favor and 60 percent opposed, the lowest support and highest opposition Quinnipiac has recorded since it began asking the question in early March.
A majority of voters, 55 percent, now think the military action will last at least a year, up sharply from 32 percent who said so in Quinnipiac's April 15 poll. Fifty-four percent think the United States is not winning the war, and 66 percent say the costs have not been worth the benefits.
The AP-NORC poll found just 28 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the situation in Iran, while 69 percent disapprove, continuing a steady decline from 34 percent approval in the center's June poll. Only 33 percent of Americans think the war with Iran has been worth fighting, while 64 percent say it has not.
The poll also found little consensus on next steps: 23 percent want the U.S. to continue military action, 23 percent want it stopped entirely, and 30 percent want a pause while negotiators seek a renewed ceasefire.
Economy and Gas Prices Compound the Political Damage
All three polls point to economic anxiety adding to Trump's political troubles, with his handling of the economy underwater by wide margins in every survey.
The CNN poll found just 30 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy, while 70 percent disapprove. Seventy-four percent say rising gas prices have caused them at least some hardship, up from 63 percent in March, with just under a quarter believing Trump has a plan to address the issue. Trump's approval on gas prices stood at just 21 percent, and his approval on inflation at 25 percent, his two weakest issue ratings alongside Iran. Seventy-one percent said Trump has not gone far enough in trying to reduce the price of everyday goods, up from 58 percent a year ago.
In the Quinnipiac survey, 34 percent of voters approve of Trump's handling of the economy, while 62 percent disapprove. Seventy-one percent of voters describe the economy as either not so good or poor, and 59 percent think it is getting worse. Forty-nine percent say they are worse off financially than they were a year ago, compared with 34 percent who say they are better off. Fifty-four percent said they blame Trump "a lot" for the recent rise in gas prices.
"The answer to the time-tested campaign query, 'are you better off today than you were a year ago,' comes back... no," Malloy said.
The AP-NORC poll found Trump's approval on the economy at 30 percent, with 69 percent disapproving. Forty percent of Americans cite the cost of gas as a major source of stress in their lives, up from 27 percent in a February poll conducted before the war began.
The Quinnipiac University poll surveyed 963 registered voters from July 23-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The AP-NORC poll surveyed 1,165 adults over the same period, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 points. The CNN poll, conducted by SSRS from July 23-27, surveyed 1,225 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 points. Surveys were conducted online or by telephone.
A Midterm Warning Sign
Presidential approval ratings below 40 percent have historically preceded difficult midterm cycles for the incumbent party. Trump had a 40 percent approval rating at the equivalent point in his first term, according to Gallup, before Democrats flipped 41 House seats in the 2018 midterms.
The latest surveys point to similar warning signs. Trump's approval among independents, the group that helped Republicans win in 2024, has remained well below 40 percent. Many strategists see that as the minimum level needed to avoid a midterm wave, while Republican support among the party's base has remained high.
Quinnipiac's poll also found an early Democratic enthusiasm advantage. Forty-eight percent of voters said they want Democrats to control the House, compared with 41 percent who favor Republicans. Fifty-seven percent of Democrats said they are more motivated to vote than in past midterms, compared with 39 percent of Republicans.
"A warning sign is blinking red for the GOP," Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said. "With turnout so crucial in midterm elections that many voters tend to ignore, the Democrats seem more motivated to show up than Republicans."
Mike Madrid, a political strategist and co-founder of the Lincoln Project, said the trend reflects Republican weakness more than Democratic strength. "This is 100 percent about the Republicans," Madrid told Newsweek. "This is all anger and upset with the Republicans. Not that the Democrats are doing anything right. It's that the Republicans are doing everything wrong."
Republican strategist Matt Klink said concerns about the economy are driving Trump's decline. "The public's anxiety about the economy, specifically their own financial situation, has led to a downward trend in polls for the president," Klink told Newsweek. "His ineffective economic messaging may be his biggest issue."
Other Pollsters Show the Same Slide
The three polls align with a broader pattern of recent surveys showing Trump stuck below 40 percent approval for months.
A poll by The Economist/YouGov conducted July 25-27 among 1,559 U.S. adult citizens found that 34 percent approve of the job Trump is doing as president, down 2 points from the previous week, while 62 percent disapprove, up 2 points. It is Trump's lowest approval rating in the poll since returning to office, surpassing the previous low he reached earlier this year.
A Washington Post/Ipsos poll released in mid-July found Trump's approval at 37 percent and disapproval at 61 percent, unchanged from April. His ratings on the economy, immigration and the Iran war were all below 40 percent. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted July 21-24 similarly found 39 percent approval and 61 percent disapproval, with support for the U.S. military campaign against Iran falling to 39 percent from 44 percent in March.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted July 6-12 also put Trump's approval at 34 percent, matching the Economist/YouGov finding, while 64 percent disapproved. The survey also found Democrats holding a six-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. A plurality of voters, 42 percent, said their vote for Congress this fall would be a vote against Trump, compared with 22 percent who said it would be a vote for him.
Polling averages tell a similar story. FiftyPlusOne's weighted average had Trump at 36.8 percent approval and 59.8 percent disapproval as of July 27, a net approval of minus 23. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin average showed Trump's net approval at minus 17.4 as of the same date, an improvement from a second-term low of minus 20.2 in May but still weaker than his standing at the equivalent point in his first term. Trump began his second term with a 52 percent approval rating, according to The New York Times' polling average, before his numbers slid following the rollout of tariffs last spring and the start of the Iran war.
The Numbers Behind the Slide
The economic backdrop behind the falling numbers is measurable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June's consumer price index fell 0.4 percent from May, the largest one-month drop in more than six years, bringing annual inflation down to 3.5 percent from 4.2 percent in May. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, held flat for the month at a 2.6 percent annual rate.
Gas prices tell a more volatile story. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $4.10 on Monday, according to AAA, up sharply from $3.83 in early July as fighting resumed in the Strait of Hormuz. Prices had peaked at $4.56 on May 21 during an earlier flare-up, and were as low as $2.96 on Feb. 26, two days before the war began.
Consumer sentiment has moved in the opposite direction, though with a catch. The University of Michigan's preliminary July index climbed to 54.4, up from 49.5 in June and the highest reading since February, as easing gas prices lifted household outlooks. But the survey was conducted between June 23 and July 13, largely before the ceasefire collapsed and gas prices resumed climbing, meaning the improvement may not survive the next reading. Sentiment remains about 12 percent below where it stood a year ago, and one-year inflation expectations, at 4.2 percent, are still well above the 3.4 percent recorded in February, before the war.
Adding to Trump's economic challenges, the Iran war has become another drag on his standing with voters. His approval ratings have closely tracked developments on the battlefield, rising when ceasefires held and falling when they collapsed.
Trump's approval was already under pressure before the conflict began. It fell to a 2026 low of 41.6 percent on February 26, according to Nate Silver's Bulletin average, with disapproval reaching a yearly high of 55.4 percent. Two days later, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S. and Israeli strikes, marking the start of the war.
That low point came almost two months after the U.S. military captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 3 raid on Caracas, a separate operation that had briefly boosted Trump's numbers before they began sliding again into February.
The White House Pushes Back
The White House disputed the significance of the sliding numbers.
"The ultimate poll was November 5th, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda," White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek. "No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more."
Ingle added that Trump "has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect."
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Cristina Diciu.
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