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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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President Donald Trump’s approval rating has changed little during the final month before the midterm elections, but it is markedly weaker than at the beginning of the year, according to a Newsweek analysis of four national polling trackers.
Rolling data from Civiqs, Silver Bulletin, The New York Times and RealClearPolling all placed his net approval more than 20 points underwater on October 1, setting a difficult national backdrop for Republicans seeking to retain control of Congress.
On October 29, it ranged from 33 percent to 38.4 percent, while disapproval stood at approximately 60 percent across every measure.
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Across the four measures, Trump’s net approval rating was between 11 and 11.8 points worse on October 29 than at the beginning of 2026.
Midterm elections have historically proved difficult for the party controlling the White House, placing Republican congressional candidates under pressure as voters deliver their first nationwide verdict on the opening two years of Trump’s second term.
“In many ways, midterms are referenda on incumbent party performance,” Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek.
Civiqs recorded a slight deterioration during October.
Averages from Silver Bulletin, The New York Times and RealClearPolling showed modest improvements, but none amounted to a significant late recovery.
The three polling averages draw upon different surveys and methodologies, so their estimates should be compared for direction rather than combined.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek that Trump remained the Republican Party’s “unequivocal leader” and “unmatched motivator,” arguing that the president’s connection with the MAGA movement and record in office would help the party defend its congressional majorities.
Where the Trackers Stand Now
- Civiqs has Trump at 33 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval, producing a net rating of -27.
- Silver Bulletin records 37.3 percent approval against 60.1 percent disapproval, leaving him 22.8 points underwater.
- The New York Times shows 37 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval, for a net rating of -23.
- RealClearPolling stands at 38.4 percent approval and 60.1 percent disapproval, a net rating of -21.7.
Trump’s Net Approval Before The Midterms
Newsweek examined Trump’s standing at three points: January 1, October 1 and October 29.
Net approval is calculated by subtracting the share disapproving from the share approving.
A rating of -27 means disapproval exceeds approval by 27 percentage points.
Civiqs was used as the continuous trend line because it surveys registered voters within the same series.
The averages maintained by Silver Bulletin, The New York Times and RealClearPolling were used to determine whether the broader polling showed a similar trajectory.
Newsweek did not combine the four into a new average because they use different source polls, survey populations and weighting systems.
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Civiqs Records A Further October Decline
On January 1, Civiqs placed Trump at 40 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval. His net rating was -16.
By October 1, approval had fallen to 34 percent while disapproval reached 60 percent, widening the deficit to 26 points.
The October 29 tracker placed approval one point lower at 33 percent, with disapproval unchanged.
That produced a net rating of -27, representing a further one-point deterioration during the month and an 11-point decline since January.
The tracker contained 139,382 responses from registered voters collected between January 20, 2025, and October 29, 2026.
Participants were asked whether they approved or disapproved of the way Trump was handling his job as president.
Because Civiqs is updated continuously rather than conducted as a standalone survey, its displayed points do not carry separate fieldwork periods, sample sizes or conventional margins of sampling error.
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Silver Bulletin Shows A Modest Rebound
Silver Bulletin began the year with Trump at 42.2 percent approval and 53.7 percent disapproval, producing a net rating of -11.5.
By October 1, those figures had moved to 37.2 percent and 60.5 percent respectively, widening the deficit to 23.3 points.
Its October 29 update placed approval at 37.3 percent and disapproval at 60.1 percent.
The resulting net rating of -22.8 represented a half-point improvement during October, but remained 11.3 points worse than at the beginning of 2026.
The tracker said approval recently fell to an all-time low of 36.3 percent before recovering by approximately one point.
It also found that only 20 percent strongly approved of the president, compared with nearly half who strongly disapproved.
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The Times Moves One Point In October
The Times average placed Trump at 42 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval on January 1, leaving him 12 points underwater.
Its October 1 reading of 37 percent approval and 61 percent disapproval doubled that deficit to 24 points.
On October 29, approval remained at 37 percent while disapproval declined to 60 percent.
Net approval consequently improved by one point during October to minus 23, although it remained 11 points below its January level.
The tracker is a daily average of surveys conducted by multiple polling organizations. Individual surveys are represented within the visualization, with polls carrying greater weight displayed more prominently.
RealClearPolling Shows Almost No Movement
RealClearPolling recorded the narrowest gap at the beginning of the year, placing approval at 43.4 percent and disapproval at 53.3 percent. Its net figure was -9.9.
On October 1, approval stood at 38.3 percent while disapproval had risen to 60.2 percent, reducing net approval to -21.9.
The latest average, covering surveys conducted from October 9 to 28, records 38.4 percent approval and 60.1 percent disapproval.
That produces a net rating of -21.7, an improvement of two-tenths of a point during October but an 11.8-point deterioration over the year.
Its component polls produced a wide range of estimates. The surveys included adults, registered voters and likely voters, reinforcing why the average should not be directly equated with the registered-voter series maintained by Civiqs.
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Why The Estimates Differ
Panagopoulos said polling organizations ultimately want to capture the preferences of people who will cast ballots, but they use different methods to identify that group.
“Deciphering who the likely voters are and being accurate about that for Election Day is as much an art as it is a science,” he said.
That uncertainty helps explain why individual surveys can produce markedly different estimates even when their fieldwork overlaps.
The current RealClearPolling table ranges from 34 percent approval in a CNN survey of registered voters to 42 percent in an RMG Research poll of the same broad population.
What The Ratings Could Mean For Republicans
Presidential approval describes the national environment in which Republican candidates are competing, but it does not determine how many congressional seats will change hands.
Panagopoulos said the increasing nationalization of congressional and down-ballot elections means voters are placing greater weight on national issues, while Republican control of Washington gives dissatisfied Americans a clear governing party to hold responsible.
“If voters are unhappy, they know where to lay the blame,” he said.
“Independent voters who are important in any election cycle appear to be especially influential in this one,” Panagopoulos said, arguing that many voters who formed an important part of Trump’s 2024 coalition have since moved away from Republican support.
Local factors could nevertheless produce exceptions. Republican candidates with strong personal brands, effective campaigns or weaker Democratic opponents may outperform Trump within their states or districts.
Panagopoulos said those results would reflect “the constellation of candidates and other things that might be going on in a state or a district.”
A national wave would involve “a significant number of competitive races moving in a similar direction across a diversity of states and districts,” according to Panagopoulos.
That pattern could also emerge in seats that do not change hands, with Republican vote shares falling from previous elections even where the party’s candidates manage to survive.
What Happens Next
The results after November 3 will show how closely the congressional map followed the national mood.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Emma Lee-Sang
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