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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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President Donald Trump is posting his weakest approval numbers yet with independent voters, a warning sign for a White House heading toward a volatile midterm election cycle, according to CNN’s chief data analyst.
Newsweek contacted the White House via email for comment outside of regular business hours.
Spokesman Davis Ingle previously told Newsweek: "The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and common-sense agenda."
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Why It Matters
Independent voters often decide close elections, and their growing disapproval is historically severe at this stage of a second term.
If it holds, it could shape turnout and congressional control in the midterms.
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What To Know
Independent voters sit at the political center of the electorate, and Trump is losing them by a wider margin than any recent president at the same point in a second term, according to CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten.
Speaking on CNN News Central, Enten said Trump is now “38 points underwater” with independents, a level of unpopularity that exceeds the second-term standings of both Barack Obama and George W. Bush.
“That is worse than Obama by 20 points,” Enten said. “That is worse than George W. Bush by double digits.”
CNN anchor John Berman noted that Bush’s second term eventually unraveled amid Hurricane Katrina, the Iraq war and the Great Recession, adding that the historical comparison is not one any White House would want.
The problem, Enten argued, is not just partisan polarization but a growing sense among voters in the middle that the administration is focused on the wrong priorities.
He pointed to a recent Fox News poll showing 60 percent of voters overall saying the Trump administration is focused on the wrong things.
Among independents, that number jumps to 78 percent.
“How does that work politically?” Enten said during the broadcast. “I don’t understand how that works, especially if those numbers hold for the midterm elections. That’s a big problem.”
Independents tend to be less forgiving than party loyalists, a dynamic that makes sharp drops in approval especially consequential.
Enten framed them as a group that judges results rather than rhetoric, making it harder for presidents to ride out prolonged dissatisfaction.
What People Are Saying
Brett Lloyd, a polling and research specialist for the Independent Center, told Newsweek: "Partisans will forgive almost anything to see their side win, but independents are the ultimate 'results' voters. Aside from being a larger voting bloc than Democrats and even Republicans in the last election, they are the only group not grading on a curve."
Asked what mistake both parties are making right now in how they talk to independent voters, he said: "The biggest mistake is that they’re trying to convince Independents that they shouldn't be independent at all—they’re demanding they 'choose a side.'
"Instead of the parties moving toward the middle to meet the voters where they actually live, they are asking the voters to move their entire position to satisfy the party.
"It’s honestly silly. It’s like a baseball team trying to recruit a bunch of hockey players by telling them to forget everything they know about skating. If you want the hockey players, you don't try to force them into a dugout; you should probably just become a hockey team.
"Both parties are so obsessed with their own 'game' that they’ve forgotten the majority of the country is playing a completely different one."
Trump has publicly dismissed unfavorable polling in recent weeks, telling the New York Post about low approval tied to the Iran war: “I think that the polling is very good, but I don’t care about polling. I have to do the right thing. I have to do the right thing. This should have been done a long time ago.”
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement this week: "According to the RealClearPolitics average, President Trump is enjoying a higher approval rating than former Presidents Obama and Bush at this point in their second term, with much more hostile media coverage."
What Happens Next
With the midterms approaching, upcoming national polls will test whether independent voters remain this sharply out of step with the White House.
Campaign messaging, legislative battles and foreign policy decisions are likely to intensify scrutiny of whether the administration can regain ground with the political center.
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