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By Hannah Parry
Associate News Editor
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President Donald Trump took credit for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stronger-than-expected performance in Israel’s election on Tuesday, saying his endorsement “helped him a lot,” even as preliminary results showed Netanyahu falling short of the parliamentary majority needed to form a government.
“I actually heard that the poll numbers were wrong,” Trump told reporters late Tuesday when asked about reports that Netanyahu had lost ground. “I’m hearing that he did very well.”
Trump suggested Netanyahu could still emerge in a position of strength, describing the contest as close enough that he “might be winning or tie.” He added that a tie could “sort of be considered a win” because forming an Israeli government is “a big chess match.”
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But the president acknowledged that the political outcome remained uncertain. He said he had not spoken with Netanyahu about the results and cautioned that it was “a little bit early” to draw conclusions.
“I’m hearing that in Israel that he, I mean, the top people are saying, ‘Wow, he did a lot better than people thought,’” Trump said. “Sort of like maybe a stalemate or a win, but we’ll find out pretty soon.”
With 85 percent of votes counted Wednesday, Netanyahu’s Likud party held the largest share of the vote, but neither his political bloc nor the opposition had secured a clear path to a governing majority. The remaining count and negotiations over potential coalition partners could determine whether Netanyahu stays in office or his opponents manage to replace him.
Newsweek has reached out to the White House, Likud and opposition party Yashar for comment.
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Netanyahu Leads the Party Race but Falls Short of a Majority
Preliminary results showed Likud receiving 20.8 percent of the vote, compared with 16.1 percent for Yashar, the opposition centrist party led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Arab-led parties collectively accounted for 14.9 percent, according to figures reported Wednesday.
Israel’s 120-seat Knesset requires a coalition supported by at least 61 lawmakers to command a majority. Emerging projections from Israeli media put Likud and its allies at approximately 53 seats, compared with 48 for Eisenkot and his allied parties. Arab-led parties were projected to hold the remaining 19 seats.
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Those figures suggest Netanyahu’s bloc remains short of a majority, despite Likud’s position as the largest individual party. His opponents also cannot govern without securing additional support.
The results represent a decline for Likud from the 23.4 percent it received in the 2022 election. Nevertheless, Netanyahu’s party appears to have performed better than some early exit polls suggested, complicating initial expectations that his government could be decisively unseated.
The count is not yet complete. Absentee ballots, including those cast by military personnel and diplomats, are expected to continue being counted through Thursday evening, according to election officials cited by the AP.
Netanyahu has rejected the prospect of partnering with Arab-led parties, dismissing such an arrangement as unacceptable and warning Wednesday against what he called a “dangerous government” that might include them. The Arab-led parties have also ruled out joining a coalition with him.
That leaves Netanyahu dependent on his existing political partners or a potential shift in support among other parties if he is to assemble a government.
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Eisenkot’s Coalition Options Could Determine Netanyahu’s Future
Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s principal challenger, has left open the possibility of working with Arab-led parties under certain conditions. Such an arrangement could provide the opposition with a route to the 61 seats needed for a majority, although it would require difficult negotiations and could alienate more right-leaning members of Eisenkot’s potential coalition.
Eisenkot has called for the formation of a new government and argued that the election demonstrated public demand for political change. His party has sought assurances from potential Arab partners on issues including recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, opposition to Hamas and changes to military conscription policy.
The prospect of cooperation with Arab-led parties remains politically sensitive. Arab citizens make up roughly one-fifth of Israel’s population, and questions of national identity, Palestinian rights and the role of Arab political representation have long shaped coalition negotiations.
The United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas, previously joined an Israeli governing coalition in 2021, making it the first independent Arab party to do so. Its showing in the current election could again give Arab-led parties considerable influence over the formation of a government.
Some opposition figures have advocated working with them to remove Netanyahu from power. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, has argued that Israel must move beyond political divisions between Jewish and Arab voters.
However, Eisenkot faces a balancing act. Cooperation with Arab-led parties could give his bloc the numbers needed to govern, but it could also cost him support from other prospective coalition partners.
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The Arab Vote Could Decide Netanyahu’s Fate in Israel’s Election
If neither side can assemble a majority, Israel could face another election. The country held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 amid repeated political deadlock.
President Isaac Herzog, who will play a central role in the process of selecting a candidate to form a government, urged political leaders to avoid another vote.
“One thing must be clear, and I said this before the elections too: we must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections,” Herzog said Wednesday.
The president is not automatically required to nominate the leader of the largest party, meaning Likud’s lead does not by itself guarantee Netanyahu another term.
Trump’s Endorsement and His Relationship With Netanyahu
Trump’s comments reflected his longstanding political relationship with Netanyahu and his interest in the Israeli leader’s continued influence.
The president publicly backed Netanyahu during the election campaign, presenting the endorsement as a potential boost to the prime minister’s standing with voters. Trump’s remarks Tuesday suggested he believed that support had helped Netanyahu outperform expectations.
“When the endorsement went out, it helped him a lot,” Trump said.
The two leaders have maintained a close political relationship, particularly on security policy and their shared opposition to Iran. Netanyahu has also emphasized his relationship with Trump as a central element of his efforts to project strength internationally.
During his election-night remarks, Netanyahu praised the strength of Israel and said the country would work with Trump to confront its enemies. The comments underscored the importance he has placed on maintaining close ties with Washington.
What Happens Next
With neither bloc securing the 61 seats needed for a majority, Israel faces several possible outcomes as coalition negotiations begin.
- Another election: If Netanyahu and his opponents fail to assemble a majority, Israel could hold another election. President Isaac Herzog has urged parties to avoid another vote, but a prolonged deadlock could make one unavoidable.
- Netanyahu forms a broader coalition: The prime minister could try to attract defectors from opposition parties or negotiate with more centrist politicians. However, such a deal could force him to compromise with his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies, potentially threatening his existing bloc.
- Eisenkot partners with Arab-led parties: The opposition leader could seek support from Arab-led parties, which are projected to hold 19 seats. Their cooperation could help his bloc reach a majority, but disagreements over security, national identity and the role of Arab parties in government could complicate negotiations.
- Eisenkot leads a minority government: Another possibility is an opposition-led government that relies on Arab lawmakers voting in its favor or abstaining without formally joining the coalition. Such an arrangement could be fragile and vulnerable to a no-confidence vote.
Netanyahu will remain prime minister while negotiations unfold, with the outcome depending on whether either side can secure sufficient parliamentary support. Although Likud has emerged as the largest party, that advantage does not guarantee Netanyahu another term. With the final vote count still underway, weeks of political maneuvering could lie ahead before Israel's next government becomes clear.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas
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