U.S.

2016 Presidential Polls for October 27, 2016

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An employee holds up masks depicting Clinton and Trump at Hollywood Toys & Costumes in Los Angeles, on October 26. Mario Anzuoni/Reuters

Welcome to The Day in Polls. As we approach Election Day, we’ll be keeping you up-to-date on the latest poll numbers and where the candidates stand.

Let’s start with The Upshot, which gives Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee for president, a 92 percent chance of winning, compared to Republican candidate Donald Trump’s 8 percent. While Trump could still win, The Upshot says: “Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 31-yard field goal.” According to The Upshot, the chance of Clinton winning the election has increased steadily since the beginning of the month: On October 1, Clinton had a 76 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 24 percent .

On Wednesday night, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver wrote that Trump has “probably narrowed his deficit against Clinton,” but by too little to see any major shift. FiveThirtyEight ’s election forecast on Thursday predicted that, nationally, Clinton had a 84.4 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 15.6 percent chance. Meanwhile, 46 percent of voters in a YouGov poll published Thursday said they intend to vote for Clinton, while 41 percent said they will cast their vote for Trump.

Real Clear Politics had Clinton leading Trump by 5.4 points on Thursday, a slight dip from the same time a week ago, when she was up by 6.1 points. The average from Thursday’s polls had Clinton with 48.6 percent support and Trump with 42.7 percent.

Outlier of The Day: Evan McMullin! According to a SurveyMonkey poll from Utah published on Thursday, 29 percent of voters say they will choose McMullin, a conservative independent candidate, the same percentage who say they intend to vote for Clinton. Trump is ahead in Utah by a narrow margin, at 32 percent. McMullin, who is Mormon, has polled highly in the state, where he’s seen as a viable alternative to the brashness and unpredictability of Trump.

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