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Aliss Higham

By Aliss Higham

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has confirmed that Republican budget plans will result in unavoidable cuts to Medicaid.

Why It Matters

Medicaid gives health coverage to some individuals and families, including children, parents, pregnant people, elderly people with certain incomes, and people with disabilities. As of October last year, more than 72 million people across the country had Medicaid coverage.

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Since the House of Representatives passed a budget resolution in late February that instructed the House Energy and Commerce Committee to slash spending under its jurisdiction by $880 billion, there have been concerns that proposed cuts could impact the national health insurance program.

What To Know

The CBO, a nonpartisan government think tank that oversees budget analysis, has found that Republicans can't achieve their goal of slashing $2 trillion in federal spending over the next decade without cutting Medicaid and likely other health insurance programs such as Medicare and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP).

Without these programs, the funding overseen by the Energy and Commerce Committee amounts to $381 billion. Collection programs or user fees already cover more than half that total.

As a result, even if the committee were to cut every program except for Medicaid, Medicare, and CHIP, the maximum savings would be $135 billion—significantly less than the $880 billion outlined in the GOP budget.

U.S. President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol on March 04, 2025 in Washington, DC. Vice President JD Vance and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson applaud behind him.

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The figures were provided in a letter responding to an inquiry from Democrat Representatives Frank Pallone, ranking member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, and Brendan Boyle, ranking member of the Budget Committee.

"This analysis from the nonpartisan CBO confirms what we've been saying all along: Republicans are lying about their budget," Boyle said. "Their plan would force the largest Medicaid cuts in American history—all to pay for more tax giveaways to billionaires. This is a complete betrayal of the middle class, and Democrats will keep fighting to stop them."

With the budget, Trump and the GOP aim to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which would cost nearly $5 trillion, while also advocating for hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending on border security, deportations and national defense.

Trump has said there should be no benefits cuts for Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid, the three largest social safety net programs. In the 2024 fiscal year, they accounted for some $3.2 trillion of the country's $6.75 trillion in total spending.

Speaker Mike Johnson, who in February managed to convince a handful of uneasy Republicans into voting for the bill, reiterated that the president said "over and over and over" that he is not going to "touch Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid," and that the House GOP has "made the same commitment."

But critics of the budget had already pointed out that under current resolution, if enacted in its current form, would result in unavoidable cuts to Medicaid.

What People Are Saying

Speaker Mike Johnson told CNN before the CBO letter was published: "The White House has made a commitment. The president said over and over and over, 'We're not going to touch Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.' We've made the same commitment. Now that said, what we are going to do is go into those programs and carve out the fraud, waste and abuse, and find efficiencies."

The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning think tank, said in its analysis of the budget: "The impact of these cuts could be grave: think of a person who loses health coverage through Medicaid and can't get cancer treatment, an older and frail adult who loses the home-based care they need to stay out of an institution, a young adult who can't get insulin to control their diabetes, a parent who skips meals so their children can eat, or an older worker who loses their job and has no way to buy groceries. Make no mistake, these cuts would affect people in every state and of all races and ethnicities."

What Happens Next

The resolution now moves to the Senate, where it is expected to face substantial opposition from Democrats but could pass due to Republican control of the chamber.

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