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By Alia Shoaib
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A Donald Trump-backed candidate is trailing in Georgia's Republican gubernatorial runoff just days before voters head to the polls, according to a new survey that suggests the race has tightened dramatically.
Georgia Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones trails businessman Rick Jackson by 3 points in a new InsiderAdvantage poll released ahead of Tuesday's high-stakes runoff election.
Beyond Georgia, the runoff is being closely watched as a measure of Trump's continued influence over Republican voters. A loss for Jones would mark another rare setback for a Trump-backed candidate and could signal that endorsements alone are becoming less decisive in competitive statewide races.
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The contest has also become a proxy battle between competing forces within the Georgia GOP. Jones entered the race as the Trump-backed favorite, while Jackson has gained ground by spending heavily on his campaign and presenting himself as an outsider alternative to the state's Republican establishment.
With Georgia expected to remain one of the nation's most competitive states in 2026 and beyond, the outcome could offer clues about which voices carry the most weight with Republican voters.
Poll Shows Race Tightening Ahead of Runoff
The InsiderAdvantage survey of 800 likely voters, conducted June 13 to 14, found Jackson leading Jones 49 percent to 46 percent, with 5 percent of voters still undecided. The poll's margin of error is 3.31 percentage points.
The pollster said it will publish another survey ahead of Tuesday’s run-off, given the late-stage endorsement of Jones by the incumbent Georgia Governor Brian Kemp.
Kemp, who is barred from seeking another term, remains one of Georgia's most popular Republican figures, making his support a potentially important factor in such a close race.
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The runoff was triggered after neither candidate secured a majority in last month's primary. Jones finished first with roughly 38 percent of the vote, while Jackson received about 33 percent.
The latest survey suggests momentum has shifted toward Jackson. In InsiderAdvantage's late-May poll, Jones led with nearly 48 percent support to Jackson’s 42 percent. Jackson has since erased that advantage and moved ahead.
A separate Cygnal polling memo released last week similarly showed Jackson overtaking Jones after previously trailing in the race.
Jackson's rise has coincided with a massive self-funded campaign. Politico reported that he has spent roughly $100 million of his own money, helping turn the contest into one of the most-expensive gubernatorial primaries on record.
The race also comes amid broader Republican dynamics in Georgia, where Kemp’s endorsement of Senate candidate Derek Dooley has put him at odds with Trump’s endorsement of Mike Collins, turning the contest into a test of competing GOP power centers.
Until recently, Trump's endorsement record had appeared nearly flawless. A New York Post tally found that candidates backed by the president won all 118 Republican gubernatorial, House and Senate primaries held through May.
That streak ended earlier this month when Trump's preferred candidate in Iowa's gubernatorial primary, Randy Feenstra, was defeated, underscoring that presidential backing remains powerful but is not always decisive.
What Happens Next
The Georgia GOP runoff takes place Tuesday, with the winner set to face Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms in November’s general election.
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