10
Loading video...
By Amanda Greenwood
Associate News Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
President Donald Trump is returning to Kansas on Sunday in an effort to shore up support for Republican Senator Roger Marshall as the once reliably Republican Senate race became classified as a "Toss Up" by Fox News.
Trump is due to campaign with Marshall in Salina, just two days before Election Day, as the incumbent runs against Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor, in one of the country's most watched races. The president is scheduled to speak at 6 p.m. local time at Salina Regional Airport after doors open at 2:30 p.m.
The visit takes on greater significance after Fox News shifted Kansas from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up," saying Republicans were devoting too many resources to the state for the outlet to continue concluding that Marshall had the advantage.
Read More on News
"Kansas is a conservative stronghold, but Republicans are spending too much time and money relative to other states to conclude that Sen. Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton," Fox News said in its Sunday Power Rankings update.
The Cook Political Report classified Kansas' Senate race as a "Toss Up" on October 6 after previously listing it as "Lean Republican."
Trump has also stepped up his support for Marshall in the closing days of the campaign. In a lengthy Truth Social post, the president on Sunday described the senator as “one of the Best Senators in the United States of America” and cast the race in national terms, claiming Marshall was “all that stands between the people of Kansas and Communists controlling the United States Senate.”
Trump attacked Hamilton as a “Radical Left Phony” who was pretending to be a moderate, while praising Marshall’s positions on taxes, regulation, energy and immigration. He concluded by reiterating his “Complete and Total Endorsement” of Marshall and urging voters: “GET OUT AND VOTE FOR ROGER.”
Trump's trip also comes after several recent polls showed Hamilton ahead in a state Trump carried by more than 16 points in the 2024 presidential election.
...
It will be Trump's second Kansas appearance on Marshall's behalf in a matter of weeks. He rallied for the senator near Wichita on October 19, telling voters to "pretend" he was on the ballot when they cast their votes.
The latest visit has itself been through an unusual series of changes.
Trump had initially been scheduled to appear in Salina on October 31 before the Republican National Committee (RNC) announced on Thursday that planned in-person appearances in Kansas and Iowa had been canceled in favor of tele-rallies. The RNC said at the time that Republicans were in a "strong position" in both states.
By Friday, however, the Kansas event was back on the schedule, but moved to Sunday.
Hamilton responded to the reinstated visit by saying Trump was "always welcome in Kansas," while calling on the president to meet Kansans he said were being hurt by policies from Washington.
Trump has also been using his social media account to encourage Republican turnout in Kansas ahead of Election Day. In another Truth Social post on Sunday, he urged supporters to vote early and that Republicans needed to produce “massive turnout,” noting that in-person early voting continues through November 2.
“SO IMPORTANT — PLEASE GET OUT AND VOTE. MAGA!” he wrote.
Newsweek has contacted Marshall's and Hamilton's campaigns for comment.
Related Story
Donald Trump Iowa, Kansas Rallies Back On After Cancellations
What the Latest Polls Show
Recent polling points to a race that’s moved in Hamilton's direction, although the surveys differ substantially over the size of his advantage.
An Emerson College Polling survey, conducted between October 26 and 28, among 800 likely voters found Hamilton at 49 percent, Marshall at 45 percent, Libertarian David Graham at 3 percent, and another 3 percent undecided. The credibility interval, comparable to a conventional margin of error, was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. When undecided voters were asked which way they leaned, Hamilton rose to 50 percent and Marshall to 47 percent.
That represented movement toward Hamilton from Emerson's September poll. His support increased four points, from 45 to 49 percent, while Marshall gained two, from 43 to 45 percent.
A CNN/SSRS survey conducted October 20 to 26 among 838 likely voters found Hamilton leading 49 percent to 45 percent. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, meaning Hamilton's advantage was within the survey's margin of error.
The largest Democratic advantage came from a Washington Post/Schar School poll, which was conducted between October 22 and 26 among 801 likely voters. It found Hamilton at 52 percent, Marshall at 43 percent, and Graham at 4 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. When voters backing Graham or no candidate were asked to choose between the two major-party candidates, Hamilton led 54 percent to 44 percent.
That poll does give a note of caution that the “poll experienced significantly higher cooperation rates among registered Democrats than Republicans and additional signs of nonresponse error.”
Meanwhile, an InsiderAdvantage poll that was conducted between October 13 and 14 among 1,200 likely voters showed that Marshall was leading Hamilton by one point, 48 percent to 47 percent. That poll's margin of error was plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Fox News noted on Sunday that an average of around 10 percent of voters in recent high-quality surveys of Alaska, Iowa and Kansas were either undecided or not supporting the major-party candidates, saying it was impossible to know how those voters would ultimately break.
Why Kansas Matters
Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic U.S. senator since the 1930s, meaning that a Democratic victory in this year's midterms would represent a major departure from the state's modern Senate voting history.
Democrats have, however, demonstrated that they can win statewide and suburban voters in Kansas in recent years. Democrat Laura Kelly won the governorship in 2018 and 2022, while Representative Sharice Davids has repeatedly won Kansas' 3rd Congressional District.
But the importance of the Marshall-Hamilton contest extends beyond Kansas.
Fox News currently favors Democrats in 48 Senate seats and Republicans in 45, meaning seven battleground races, including Kansas, could determine which party wins the majority.
The Senate map nevertheless presents Democrats with a difficult path. In 2024, Trump won seven of the 11 states Fox News currently considers competitive in the Senate, including Kansas. The outlet says Democrats would probably have to capture at least two Trump-won battlegrounds as part of a path to 51 seats.
Kansas therefore gives Democrats an unexpected additional route toward the majority while forcing Republicans to defend territory that, at the beginning of the cycle, would normally have been expected to remain safely in their column.
Newsweek*’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here*. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Anthony Murray and Daniel Orton.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines