Trump Holds Narrow Leads in Ohio, Texas, While Biden Sees 30-Point Lead in California, Polling Shows

A new series of polls conducted by Emerson College and Nexstar Media show President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over former Vice President Joe Biden in Ohio and Texas, while voters in California continue to support Biden, despite doubts over his electability.

In Ohio, a historically key state for Republicans, Trump held a narrow three-point lead over Biden, with 46 percent of voters throwing their support behind the president compared to 43 percent who backed Biden. When undecided voters are included, Trump's lead tightened to 51 percent to Biden's 49 percent.

While the race appears to be tight, a majority of Ohio voters said they believed Trump would be victorious in the 2020 election, with 62 percent of voters saying they think Trump will be re-elected.

The Ohio poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday through online polling and robocalling of 725 registered voters. The margin of error in the poll was ±3.5 percentage points.

In Texas, Trump appeared to lead Biden by just six points, with 47 percent of voters supporting the president compared to 41 percent who said they would cast their ballots in Biden's favor. When undecided voters are counted in the poll's results, the president's lead narrowed to just four points, 52 percent to 48 percent.

As in Ohio, the majority of voters also said they believed Trump would be re-elected, with 61 percent of voters saying they believed the president would come out of the election victorious.

The Texas data included responses from 800 voters polled between between Friday and Sunday, with a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.

In California, one of the country's most Democratic states, Biden enjoyed a 30-point lead over Trump with 59 percent of voters saying they would back the former vice president compared to 29 percent who said they would support Trump. When undecided voters are included, the 30-point gap remains with Biden on 65 percent and Trump on 35 percent.

Despite Biden's strong lead in the poll, Californians expressed doubts that the former vice president would see success in his bid to unseat Trump. Only 54 percent of California voters said they believed Biden would win the November election.

The California poll saw 800 voters surveyed between Friday and Saturday, with a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.

All poll results were weighted for age, gender, ethnicity, party, education, religion and region based on the 2016 and 2018 turnouts.

Spencer Kimball, the director of Emerson College Polling, said the findings suggest that the coronavirus pandemic does not appear to have prompted a major shift in support across the three states.

"Despite the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on society, this data does not find a shift in the Presidential race in Ohio, Texas or California," Kimball said.

When questioned on the coronavirus pandemic, 22 percent of voters in Ohio, 20 percent in Texas and 16 percent in California said they have or know someone who has tested positive for COVID-19.

Asked if they or someone in their household has lost a job due to the pandemic, 32 percent in Ohio, 26 percent in Texas and 33 percent in California said they had.

Trump biden supporters
A President Donald Trump and a former Vice President Joe Biden supporter converse before the Joe Biden Campaign Rally at the National World War I Museum and Memorial on March 7, 2020 in Kansas City, Missouri. New polling shows Trump holding a tight lead over Biden in Ohio and Texas. Kyle Rivas/Getty
Trump Holds Narrow Leads in Ohio, Texas, While Biden Sees 30-Point Lead in California, Polling Shows | U.S.