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By Andrew Stanton
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President Donald Trump questioned the results of the 2026 midterm elections in a post on Truth Social on Monday, asking how the polls could have been “so wrong” as the Republican Party continued grappling with major losses in the House of Representatives and Senate. One expert Newsweek spoke with, however, defended the polls, saying they "underestimated magnitude but got the vector right."
Polls underestimated Democrats by several points in the midterms, shattering the narrative that Republicans are routinely underestimated. RealClearPolitics’ generic ballot average showed Democrats up 8.8 points over Republicans, but Democrats ended up winning by 13 points, according to data from The New York Times as of Monday morning, when some votes were yet to be counted.
That had major implications for both parties. Although Democrats were seen as favorites to flip control of the House, and the Senate was seen as competitive, Democrats are poised to win both chambers easily, with more than 250 seats in the House and at least 54 seats in the Senate, with several seats uncalled.
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Trump on Monday took to Truth Social, questioning if anyone believes the election was “honest.”
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“Does anybody really believe that this ‘Election’ was honest. How could the Polls be so wrong??? Some early voting ‘dumps’ were so large that it was impossible to win, no matter how many people went to vote. It’s all about the machines, which are far more important than the voter!” he wrote.
Polling error may come down to the estimates of who is considered a “likely voter,” a group that has been changing, Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek.
“In defense of the polls, they did correctly show and predict that races one would have thought would not be particularly competitive were in fact extremely competitive,” he said. “They underestimated magnitude but got the vector right. And there may have been some late-breaking voters, in terms of turnout and in terms of vote choice, who the polls simply missed through no fault of their own.”
As for future elections, Reeher said he believes Republicans still have around 43 percent of the vote “baked in.”
“Unless they field a really bad candidate, a presidential election year should generate its own enthusiasm,” he said. “And a lot depends of course on what Democrats do with this victory, in terms of their presidential own sweepstakes.”
Newsweek reached out to the Democratic and Republican national committees for comment via email.
How Wrong Were Polls in Key Senate Races?
Polling across the board underestimated Democrats in key Senate races.
The largest polling miss was in Texas, where polling showed Democratic Senator-elect James Talarico with a slight edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton—but Talarico ended up winning by double digits.
RCP’s average gave Talarico a 2.6-point lead, but he won by 12.1 points—a polling miss of more than 9 points.
Georgia also saw a 9-point polling miss. Senator Jon Ossoff led by an average of 8.4 points, per RCP, but was on track to win by 18 points.
In South Carolina, polling gave Senator Darline Graham a 2.6-point lead, but she was on track to lose to Democratic Senator-elect Annie Andrews by 4.5 points.
Here is a look at how polls missed in 11 key Senate races.
Republicans Banked on Pro-GOP Polling Error
In the final stretch of the campaign, Republicans said they believed polling was inaccurate and were banking on a pro-Republican polling error.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, said during an interview on Fox News’ The Ingraham Angle that polls were “grossly underestimating Republican enthusiasm.”
“I think it’s even further off this time because more and more Republicans are unwilling to participate in these surveys. They don’t want to give their information to someone on the phone. They don’t play along. They’re calling it the partisan nonresponse bias,” he said.
Nate Silver wrote in an October 20 Substack post that pollsters are “acutely aware” of the challenge that Republicans are less likely to participate in polls and have a “variety of tactics and techniques to combat it.”
“They can match to Census Bureau demographics, or they can anchor to the past reported vote. Or there might be approaches that are a little bit more subjective: for instance, playing around with assumptions in likely voter models. Pollsters might herd or refuse to publish results they deem too far out of consensus; it’s happened before in the U.S. and abroad,” he wrote.
Polling Hasn’t Always Underestimated Republicans
While it is true that Republicans have been underestimated in polls during several recent elections, that is not always the case. Polling error is not replicated from cycle to cycle. Pro-Republican polling errors have been most pronounced during presidential years when Trump was on the ballot.
In 2018, the generic ballot polling error also favored Democrats, though by a less dramatic margin. RCP had Democrats up 7.3 points in their final average; they ended up winning by 8.4 points.
Polling was fairly accurate in 2022. Republicans led the generic ballot by 2.5 points, according to RCP, and went on to win by 2.8 points.
Republicans have modestly overperformed their polling in recent presidential races, though the difference has only been a few points.
In 2024, polling was only a few points off. RCP’s average had former Vice President Kamala Harris up only 0.1 points over Trump, who carried the national popular vote by 1.5 points.
In 2020, RCP had former President Joe Biden up 7.2 points in the polls; he ended up winning by 4.5 points, and by even narrower margins in key swing states. RCP had former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton up 3.2 points in 2016. She ended up winning the popular vote by just over 2 points, while losing the Electoral College.
What Has Donald Trump Said About Midterm Results?
Trump's latest comments mark a shift from his response on election night.
“I am absolutely willing to accept those results,” Trump told the New York Times on election night. “We’ll work with the Democrats, and we’ll, you know, look forward to working with them. We’ll probably work something out.”
In other election-night remarks, Trump sought to distance himself from the Republican defeat, writing on Truth Social: “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!”
Prior to the midterms, the president told reporters he would accept the results if they were "honest elections."
On Sunday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. "took a giant step back in History with the results of the last Election."
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Gray R. Thomas
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