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President Donald Trump kicked off a mid-decade gerrymandering arms race last summer by urging Texas to redraw its congressional map to secure five additional Republican House seats. Democrats responded with counter-gerrymandering of their own, leading to months of partisan redistricting warfare across at least a dozen states. The battle has produced unexpected heroes and villains on both sides.
The tally so far: Republicans gained nine seats they believe winnable, Democrats six—though gerrymandering efforts are still continuing (as well as the inevitable legal challenges) in states including Maryland, Virginia, Florida, and New York.
Gavin Newsom ⬆
The California governor championed Proposition 50 to counter Texas Republicans, voters approved it 64-36, and the Supreme Court just greenlit the map targeting five GOP-held seats. He turned opposition to "unilateral disarmament" into a rallying cry and won—just in time for a soft launch of his 2028 presidential campaign via gauzy New Yorker and Vogue profiles.
Read More on Opinion
Wes Moore ⬇
The Rhodes scholar, bestselling author, and one-time guest aboard George Clooney’s Italian yacht can't persuade his own state Senate to pass a congressional map. Senate President Bill Ferguson—dubbed "the most hated Democrat in America" and told by Virginia's Senate leader to "grow a pair"—blocked the gerrymander despite the House passing it 99-37, arguing courts will overturn it and cost Democrats seats they already hold. Moore's 2028 presidential ambitions dim with each passing day Maryland doesn't act.
Abigail Spanberger ⬅➡
Virginia's new governor promised during her campaign that "I’ve been watching with interest what other states are doing, but I have no plans to redistrict Virginia" if elected, then backed the effort in her January inaugural address as a "response to what we’re seeing in other states." But despite all that flip-flopping, the Virginia gerrymander effort remains on hold: A judge blocked an April referendum on procedural grounds; on Wednesday the Court of Appeals sent the case to the state Supreme Court. Hypocrisy hurts the worst when it gets no results.
Rodric Bray ⬆
Indiana's Republican Senate leader told the Trump administration he wouldn't fight redistricting, then encouraged votes against it and cast one himself. Trump vowed to back a primary challenger: "He'll probably lose his next primary, whenever that is." The final vote was 31-19 against, with 21 Republicans joining all 10 Democrats. Turns out federal bullying doesn't play in the Hoosier State.
Ron DeSantis ⬅➡
Announced an April special session for Florida redistricting timed to start the exact day candidate qualifying was supposed to begin, forcing the Secretary of State to move filing to June. Waiting for the Supreme Court's Louisiana ruling on the Voting Rights Act before drawing a map that violates Florida's own constitutional ban on partisan gerrymandering. Strategic patience or paralysis?
Nicole Malliotakis ⬇
A state judge ruled that New York City's only Republican House seat centered on Staten Island that Malliotakis represents "diluted Black and Latino voting power" and ordered new lines by February 6. Malliotakis calls it "a frivolous attempt by Washington Democrats to steal this congressional seat," which in the current context is kind of stating the obvious. She's appealing the ruling, but House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries already declared: "Republicans started this gerrymandering fight. Democrats are going to end it."
Originally a staple of Newsweek's print edition, Conventional Wisdom used arrows to track whose stock was rising or falling in the political circus. We're reviving it in the digital age because the problem it lampooned—hyperbole and partisan certainty masquerading as insight—has only intensified.
CW assigns arrows—up, down, or sideways—to the figures and forces shaping current events. The arrows don't predict the future or claim special insight. They capture the prevailing winds of the moment, uncluttered by tribal howling. In an era when partisan media reinforces rather than questions assumptions, CW operates from the center—skeptical of left and right alike, committed to puncturing inflated reputations and recognizing overlooked truths.
Do you agree with our editors on which way the political winds are blowing? Send us a message here.
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