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By Jenni Fink
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A conservative journalist is calling for Vice President JD Vance to invoke the 25th Amendment to get President Donald Trump out of office, but prediction markets indicate people aren't confident that will happen.
The 25th Amendment allows for the legal transfer of presidential power to the vice president if the president becomes incapacitated or unable to fulfil their duties, dies, resigns or is removed from office by impeachment. Calls for the 25th Amendment to be invoked have increased since the Iran war started, with calls starting to creep into conservative circles as well as Democratic ones.
But invoking the 25th Amendment would require the majority of Trump's Cabinet to turn against him and declare him unable to fulfill his role as the president, making it a long shot.
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Chances Donald Trump Is Removed With the 25th Amendment
Kalshi’s market titled “Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump’s presidency?” gives only a 33 percent probability that it'll happen before the president leaves office. While still low, the probability has been fairly steadily climbing since the beginning of the year, when the probability was at 15 percent. There have only been three days this year that have had higher probability.
Polymarket’s market “Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?” gives Trump even better probability of staying in office, with only an 8 percent chance of him being removed by way of the 25th Amendment before the end of the year. The probability has been pretty steady on Polymarket, except for one day, March 8, when it skyrocketed to more than 40 percent. It's unclear what caused the spike, but it was the same day that joint U.S.-Israeli strikes hit fuel depots in Tehran, indicating an escalation in the war, and Trump was criticized for golfing amid the war.
While neither market suggests removal is likely in the near term, the continued trading activity reflects heightened speculation as political tensions escalate and more figures openly discuss the once-taboo idea of using the 25th Amendment against a sitting president.
To place a trade on what will happen next with the 25th Amendment, click the watchlist below.
Why the 25th Amendment Is Back in the Spotlight
The renewed focus on the 25th Amendment follows a series of political controversies and foreign policy flashpoints that have prompted critics to question Trump’s fitness for office. In recent months, Democratic lawmakers and commentators have publicly called for his removal, citing concerns about judgment, stability and decision-making, particularly around foreign affairs.
On Monday, Scott McConnell, a founding editor of The American Conservative, urged Vance to support a “25th Amendment transition” away from Trump. In a social media post, McConnell argued that Vance should publicly back such a move and use his platform to explain why it would be necessary while pledging not to run for president in 2028.
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Melanie D'Arrigo, executive director of the Campaign for New York Health, called for the 25th Amendment to be invoked after Trump invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to join his "Board of Peace" for Gaza because it's about "putting country over party."
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Majid M. Padellan, who goes by "Brooklyn Dad Defiant" on X, pushed for the invocation of the 25th Amendment immediately because the people "surrounding" Trump have "no idea what they're doing in Iran, and it will cost many lives and devastate the economy."
David Stockman, who worked in President Ronald Reagan's administration, posted on X that it becomes "more imperative" that Vance "man up" for his 25th Amendment duty.
"Trump has flat out lost his mind," Stockman posted on X.
Senator Ed Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, also called for Trump to be removed from office under the 25th Amendment in January after he said he would be less likely to go after Greenland if he had won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.
What the 25th Amendment Actually Allows
The 25th Amendment, ratified in 1967, outlines procedures for transferring presidential power in cases of death, resignation or incapacity. Section 4—the most controversial and never successfully used to permanently remove a president—allows the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to declare that the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”
If invoked, the vice president immediately becomes acting president. The president can contest the declaration, triggering a vote in Congress, where two-thirds majorities in both the House and Senate would be required to uphold the removal. Legal experts have long emphasized that this high threshold makes Section 4 extremely difficult to execute in practice, especially without overwhelming bipartisan support.
That procedural reality helps explain why prediction markets remain skeptical that the amendment will actually be used, despite growing rhetoric around it.
Is JD Vance Considering the 25th Amendment?
Despite the attention, there is currently no evidence that Vance or Cabinet officials are preparing to invoke the 25th Amendment. Vance has been a firm supporter of the president and has given no indication he has any plans to try to remove Trump from office.
Republicans in Congress have also shown little appetite for actions that would destabilize their own administration. Even some lawmakers critical of Trump’s actions have stopped short of endorsing removal.
Media entrepreneur and political commentator Kmele Foster told Megyn Kelly on Monday that if Vance disagrees with the war he needs to advocate against the conflict, even if it means "alienating your boss." Foster questioned the viability of Vance as a 2028 candidate if he isn't making those moves to speak out against the conflict.
Kelly disagreed, saying on her podcast, The Megyn Kelly Show, that she thinks Vance opposes the war but is in a "great position" because as vice president it's his job to have the president's back. She said it would be a "disastrous" move to turn on Trump over the war right now but that after the midterms, he could express his opposition to the war if asked what he would have done differently if he was president.
What Happens Next
The repeated resurfacing of the 25th Amendment reflects deeper unease among some critics about presidential power and accountability. Similar conversations emerged during Trump’s first term, including references in a 2018 anonymous New York Times op-ed to early Cabinet discussions about the amendment, though no action followed.
In Trump’s second term, those concerns have been reignited by high-stakes foreign policy disputes and provocative rhetoric, keeping the amendment in public discourse even as its actual use remains unlikely.
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