Ukraine halts Russia's gas pipe to Europe: How will Putin respond?

Vladimir Putin

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Shane Croucher

By Shane Croucher

Senior Editor

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A five-year deal that enabled Russia's Gazprom to continue sending gas to European Union member states via a pipeline that flowed through Ukraine lapsed at the start of 2025 with no fresh agreement to replace it.

Ukraine hailed the end of the gas transit deal amid Russia's ongoing invasion, with its energy minister calling the occasion a "historic event" that will cause Moscow financial loss and aligns with Europe's moves to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, per AP.

Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for Russia's foreign minister, said it "not only weakens Europe's economic potential but is also negatively affecting the living standards of Europeans," and that Kyiv and its European allies "sacrificed the wellbeing of their people in order to provide financial support to the U.S. economy," TASS reported.

Margarita Balmaceda, Professor, School of International Relations and Diplomacy, Seton Hall University; Author of Russian Energy Chains The Remaking Of Techno Politics Between Siberia Ukraine and The European Union

It is my understanding that Russia will try to replace transit through Ukraine through transit via two other pipelines reaching Hungary and Slovakia, the "Turkish Stream" through Turkey and the smaller Balkan route through Serbia, and increased LNG exports.

But, most importantly, I expect Russia to seek to replace this income through what I call the export of "hidden natural gas".

That is, natural gas exported to the European Union in the form of nitrogen fertilizers, which are produced on the basis of natural gas but have been explicitly excluded from sanctions and are not dependent on pipelines.

Actually, these fertilizer exports to the EU have more than doubled after the 2022 invasion, and have proven a significant source of income for Moscow.

Pavel K. Baev, Research Professor, The Peace Research Institute Oslo

The closure of the gas transit through Ukraine is certainly not a surprise, perhaps more surprising was Russia's readiness to continue pumping the gas after the capture of Sudzha metering station by Ukrainian troops in August.

The end of the long saga of Russian breakthrough to the European gas market is important only symbolically, and Gazprom's troubles are set to deepen, since its vast investment in connections with the best customers are lost.

Putin can escalate missile strikes on Ukrainian gas infrastructure, including underground storages, but he needs to be wary of Trump's ambitions for expanding the U.S. production of oil and gas, which are a major threat to Russia's export revenues.

Giving these ambitions a stronger rationale is hardly smart policy, but then—the damage inflicted by the aggression against Ukraine on Russia's energy industry is so profound that the conventional cost-benefit calculations don't apply.

Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief, Russia in Global Affairs; Chairman, Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy in Russia

I don't think that Putin will respond to the end of the gas deal particularly.

If Ukrainians decide to stop, there is no way to force the deal back on them. There is a practical need to find ways to work with clients in Europe, which still want to get Russian gas and need alternative routes for that.

As for the response to Ukraine, the only option is to continue the military campaign until it brings a satisfactory result.

Georg Zachmann, Senior Fellow, Bruegel economic think tank

For Russia, halting the Ukrainian gas transit poses a significant challenge. For over 50 years, exports through Ukraine provided substantial revenues and political leverage along the transit route into Western Europe.

Although revenues have recently declined, they still amounted to approximately $5 billion. A complete cessation would accelerate Europe's decoupling from Russian gas—an outcome clearly not in the Kremlin's interest.

Furthermore, even the prospect of cheap Russian gas easing the energy struggles of Kremlin-selected EU member states sows mistrust among European capitals.

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And the uncertainty on future Russian gas deters investments in alternative energy sources. Consequently, Russia has a vested interest in keeping the option to restart these pipelines at full capacity on the table.

In this context, it is crucial for the EU to develop a unified gas policy towards Russia to mitigate divisions within Europe.

One potential solution is the introduction of a European protective tariff on Russian gas.

Such a measure would reassure investors in alternative energy supplies, reduce the incentives for individual member states to become dependent on Russian energy, and generate additional resources for the EU.

Professor Andreas C. Goldthau, Director, Franz Haniel Chair for Public Policy, Willy Brandt School of Public Policy, University of Erfurt

The end of the Ukraine transit deal is not the end of Russian gas exports. Supplies through land-based pipelines may have largely ended but some liquefied natural gas (LNG) is still finding its way into Europe.

Demand in China is growing, and Putin has been eager to build up export capacity to serve that market, e.g. in the shape of the Power of Siberia pipeline system. Plus, excess capacity at home can be used for manufacturing alternative products for world markets, such as fertilizers.

Still, the end of the Ukrainian transit marks the end of a rapid and fundamental shift in Eurasian energy relations: The geography of natural gas trade dramatically changed, with Russia pivoting East for exports, and Europe looking West (that is the U.S.) for imports.

Going forward, Putin's revenues from gas exports are structurally lower, now that it has given up its prime market, whereas Europe's import costs are structurally higher, thanks to its increased reliance on global LNG.

And this is the new reality all sides have to deal with.

Michael McFaul, Director, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University; Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia

It doesn't matter how Putin will respond. We in the West have to stop worrying so much about how Putin will respond to this or that decision, and instead do things and support decisions that advance our interests.

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