Unsure how to bet the Super Bowl? Here are four smart bets to make on Chiefs vs Eagles
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The big day of the big game is finally upon us. Super Bowl 57 between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs is set to kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 12 at State Farm Stadium.
The Chiefs are playing in the game for the third time in four seasons. Meanwhile, the Eagles are back for the first time since their shock victory over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 52.
Both teams come into the game with identical 14-3 records. Kansas City was the #1 seed in the AFC. Philadelphia was the #1 seed in the NFC.
Oddsmakers have established the Eagles as 1.5-point favorites over the Chiefs. The total is set at 51 points.
Let's take a look at the best bets that you should be strongly considering making a play on for the Super Bowl.
Underdog Chiefs will cover
In recent years, the Super Bowl has not been kind to favorites. It's been especially inconsiderate to NFC favorites. The last four times an NFC squad was the chalk, they are 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread. Over the past 10 games in which the NFC was favored, that team has gone 1-7-2 ATS.
En route to the Super Bowl, the Eagles have yet to be tested. They whipped the New York Giants 38-7 in the NFC Divisional Round, then toppled the San Francisco 49ers 31-7 in the NFC Championship Game.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have overcome in two hard-fought contests. They took a 27-20 decision over the Jacksonville Jaguars in AFC Divisional Round. That was followed by a 23-20 verdict over the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.
Former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson likes to say everyone has a game plan until they get punched in the face. How will the Eagles respond if the Chiefs figuratively punch them in the face?
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Kansas City has lost one game since mid-October. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the reigning NFL MVP and will be starting his third Super Bowl game. It's the first trip to football's biggest stage for Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts. The last time he played in a national title game was at Alabama. He was benched at halftime in favor of Tua Tagovailoa.
This game is being played in Arizona and underdogs are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU in three Super Bowl games played in the Grand Canyon State. Look for the Chiefs to win a close, exciting game with a late Harrison Butker field goal. Let's say 27-24 KC.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 (-110).
Hurts so good at finding end zone
In both of Philadelphia's NFL postseason games, Hurts has run for at least one touchdown. As a matter of fact, the Eagles QB has scampered to the house for a score in five of the past six games and seven of the last nine contests.
In 17 games this season, he's run for 15 TDs. That's a single-season record for an NFL QB. Cam Newton set the previous mark of 14 TDs in 2011. Hurts to score an anytime TD seems like one of the safest player prop bets on the slate for Super Bowl 57.
Pick: Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (-115).
Take the over on first TD scorer
Another interesting prop on the Super Bowl is a game-related prop on the uniform number of the game's first touchdown scorer. The bar is set at 11.5, which appears to been an awfully low number.
Are oddsmakers counting on Hurts (#1) scoring the first TD? Do they think Kansas City rookie running back Isiah Pacheco (#10), counterpart Jerick McKinnon (#1) or perhaps Chiefs wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster (#9) will be the first to break the plane of the end zone?
Looking to the numbers on the jerseys of the first TD scorers for both teams so far through the NFL postseason, that hasn't been the case. Tight end Travis Kelce (#87) has found the end zone first in both of Kansas City's playoff games. Meanwhile, tight end Dallas Goedert (#88) and running back Miles Sanders (#26) were the first TD scorers in Philadelphia's two postseason contests.
Not only do the percentages say that the over the better bet here, you'll actually get a price by playing the over.
Pick: Jersey number of first TD scorer over 11.5 (+105).
With this Super Bowl prop, think safety first
Over the course of 270 NFL regular-season games this season, there were 13 occasions when an offensive player was tackled in their own end zone for a two-point safety. That averages out to one safety for every 20.76 games played.
In 56 Super Bowl games, nine safeties have been recorded. That works out to one safety every 5.86 games. On top of that, there hasn't been a safety recorded since Super Bowl 48 between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. That's eight games without a safety. People, we're due - we're overdue - for a Super Bowl safety.
Don't bet the farm on it happening, but at the price offered on there being a Super Bowl safety, coupled with the statistical anomaly that's it almost four times as likely to happen in the big game than in regular season game, risking $5 on a Super Bowl prop doesn't seem at all hazardous.
Pick: Safety to be scored in Super Bowl (+1000).
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