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By Jenna Sundel
News Reporter
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China does not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027, the U.S. intelligence community said in its annual threat assessment published Wednesday.
"The IC assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification," the report said. "However, China publicly insists that unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of 'national rejuvenation' by 2049—the 100th year anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)."
The agencies said China has threatened to use force to compel unification if necessary, but the nation "prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible."
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Why It Matters
China and Taiwan have been governed separately since 1949, when the Communist Party came into power in Beijing after a civil war. Defeated Nationalist Party forces fled to Taiwan, which later transitioned from martial law to multiparty democracy. China views Taiwan as its own territory, and Taiwan rejects those claims.
While China frequently conducts military drills near Taiwan, U.S. President Donald Trump has said he does not think Chinese President Xi Jinping will attack Taiwan. In December, after China conducted two days of drills around Taiwan, Trump said China has been “doing naval exercises for 20 years in that area.”
The intelligence community said a conflict between China and Taiwan may disrupt U.S. access to trade and technology critical to the global economy.
"If the U.S. were to intervene, it probably would face significant but recoverable disruptions to its transportation sector from Chinese cyber attacks," U.S. intelligence agencies said in the report. "Even without Washington’s involvement, U.S. and global economic and security interests would face significant and costly consequences, with tech supply chains disrupted and investor fear across markets. In addition, a protracted war with the U.S. risks unprecedented economic costs to the U.S., Chinese, and global economies."
What To Know
The U.S. intelligence community said the report focuses on "the most direct, serious threats to the U.S. primarily during the next year."
The agencies warned that the China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to develop military plans and capabilities for attempting to achieve unification with Taiwan.
"The PLA probably is making steady but uneven progress on capabilities that it would use in any attempt to seize Taiwan and deter—and, if necessary, defeat—U.S. military intervention," the report said. "At times, it has increased the scope, size, and pace of operations around Taiwan."
China will likely consider a variety of factors in its decision to pursue military action, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan and whether the U.S. will intervene in the conflict, the agencies said.
The intelligence community said one of China's goals in any potential military action is to counter what it views as a U.S. attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise to power.
In December, the Trump administration announced a record-breaking arms sales package to Taiwan worth more than $11 billion. Trump has also said he has a "great relationship” with Xi.
The potential for conflict between China and Taiwan has also impacted Japan, according to the intelligence community. The agencies said tensions between China and Japan increased significantly in November after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi described a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan as a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan.
"In response, China is employing multidomain coercive pressure that probably will intensify through 2026, aimed both at punishing Japan and deterring other countries from making similar statements about their potential involvement in a Taiwan crisis," the report said.
What Happens Next
The U.S. intelligence community said the threats included in the annual report require a "robust" intelligence response, "including those where a near-term focus may help head off greater threats in the future."
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