...
By Tom O'Connor
Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
With the United States and Israel now mounting a joint war against Iran, devastating its leadership and military capabilities, one of the Islamic Republic's other leading foes stands to benefit from national and regional insecurity.
The Islamic State militant group (ISIS) considers Iran, Israel and the U.S. to all be among its archfoes and has accelerated its sectarian messaging against the Islamic Republic in the lead-up to and amid the unprecedented military operation ordered Saturday by U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Just days before the opening strikes against Iran, ISIS' official Al-Naba online magazine published an article accusing Tehran of seeking to exploit the "polarization" of the Sunni jihadi movement, including an alleged alignment between Iran and Al-Qaeda, in the face of threats posed by the U.S. and Israel. It also mocked predominantly Sunni Palestinian factions for siding with Iran throughout the regional war that first erupted with the Hamas-led attack on Israel in October 2023 and proclaimed that the "Iranian ship is on the verge of sinking."
Read More on World
ISIS' Khorasan province (ISKP or ISIS-K) has already displayed the ability to penetrate deep within Iran, conducting the deadliest attack in the history of the Islamic Republic at a January 2024 ceremony marking the fourth anniversary of the U.S. killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force chief Major General Qassem Soleimani. Largely based in Afghanistan, ISKP is among the issues at the center of ongoing clashes between the Taliban and Pakistan right across Iran's borders.
Now, as the U.S. and Israel battle Iran from the skies, ISIS—and potentially other insurgent groups in Iran—are poised to exploit the conditions on the ground for its own deadly aims.
"The risk posed by armed non-state groups exploiting the current instability in Iran is significant especially since ISKP has already demonstrated both the intent/capability to strike inside Iran, as part of its broader campaign against what it frames as apostate Shia governance," Amira Jadoon, associate professor at Clemson University, told Newsweek.
"At this moment, the convergence of multiple factors is important: Iranian forces are now stretched across multiple fronts, managing retaliatory operations across the Gulf, and contending with the aftermath of months of internal unrest that already strained their capacity," Jadoon, who previously taught at West Point's Combatting Terrorism Center, said. "This is likely to create the kind of security vacuum that groups like ISKP are designed to exploit, especially to deepen sectarian conflict and generate more instability."
...
Enemy of My Enemy
While often deriding the U.S. and its European allies, along with Russia, as "crusaders" and Israel as "Zionist," ISIS has displayed a unique vitriol for Iran, given its Shiite Muslim faith—considered "rafidi," or rejectionist, by the ultrafundamentalist Sunni Muslim jihadis—and more than a decade of clashes with Tehran-aligned Axis of Resistance militias across the region.
When ISIS first emerged amid the volatile landscape of post-U.S.-invasion Iraq and swiftly stormed neighboring Syria, a longtime ally of Iran, Tehran lent its aid through the deployment of advisers and the mobilization of its regional non-state actor alliance, with Shiite Muslim fighters hailing from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and as far away as Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The U.S. led its own parallel anti-ISIS campaign, backed by a broad coalition of nations, as well as local forces, including Kurdish fighters. With the group declared largely defeated under Trump's first administration in 2019, however, tensions between Washington and Tehran quickly ramped up.
Now, in the second year of Trump's second nonconsecutive term in office, these tensions have boiled over into an all-out war at a time when both Iran and its Axis of Resistance have been severely weakened over the course of two and a half years of conflict with Israel. Even in the Islamic Republic's direct confrontation of Israel, ISIS has repeatedly signaled its disfavor.
"Even if Iran killed thousands of Jews, that would not make it a friend or ally of Muslims, because it is an infidel rafidi state that wages war on us, taints our blood and is hostile to the companions of our Prophet, may God bless him and grant him peace," read one earlier Al-Naba article published in the immediate wake of the 12-Day War launched by Israel against Iran last June.
Some among ISIS' digital support network have even celebrated the current U.S.-Israeli bombardment. The Counter Extremism Project monitor counted a dozen Telegram channels reveling in the news of the battle now consuming much of the Middle East, with one calling on followers to “rejoice in the good news."
A Complex Playing Field
ISIS may not be the only non-state actor to gain from Iran's strife. Reports have gained traction of a looming offensive being planned by Iranian Kurdish groups counting on U.S. and Israeli support, many of which are opposed to ISIS and have their own history of armed struggle against the Islamic Republic as well.
While the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan established amid nationwide protests in January has proclaimed democratic aspirations in confronting the Iranian government, the collective history of its five member organizations has proved controversial among even Iranian opposition elements over suspicions of separatist aims. Factions calling for greater autonomy along ethnic lines also exist to varying degrees of organization among Iran's Arab, Azeri and Baloch minorities.
Predominantly Sunni Muslim Baloch groups have also recently formed a new coalition, the People's Fighter Front, led by the former Jaysh al-Adl, an Islamist faction designated a terrorist organization by the U.S., Iran, Pakistan and a number of other nations. Baloch militants operating on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border fueled a direct clash between the two Islamic republics weeks after the ISKP strike in Iran in January 2024.
With unrest across the triangle of Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Jadoon argued that "Jaysh al-Adl represents a different but equally important dimension.
"The current environment provides these groups with both operational space and a narrative opportunity," she said, "framing their actions as resistance, increasing recruitment, while governments' attention is directed elsewhere."
Even once the dust from the current conflict settles, Tricia Bacon, former State Department counterterrorism official now serving as professor at American University, warned the blowback may prove deeply unpredictable, much has it has in past conflicts.
"I am extremely concerned about the threat from armed insurgent groups during the "day after" phase of this war," Bacon told Newsweek. "Groups like ISIS and ISKP will certainly try to exploit any weaknesses and power vacuums in Iran that result from this war, seeing these as opportunities to advance their virulently anti-Shia agenda and foster instability. ISIS and ISKP will certainly attempt to undermine whatever system in Iran come after the war, and ISKP is well positioned to do so."
"ISIS's anti-Iran and anti-Shia agenda runs deep, especially within ISKP, and has its roots dating back to ISIS's parent group, Al-Qaeda in Iraq," Bacon said. "That will not change. It is clear from Libya, Iraq, and Syria that ISIS thrives in environments experiencing prolonged conflict and instability, and Iran won't be an exception to that trend."
Update 3/4/26 1:40 p.m. ET: This article has been updated to include additional comments.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines