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By Jon Jackson
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A prominent terrorism researcher on Wednesday called the recent coup in Niger a "nightmare scenario" for the United States and warned it could embolden the Wagner Group of Russian mercenaries.
On July 26, Niger President Mohamed Bazoum was overthrown and detained by members of his own guard. General Abdourahmane Tchiani, the former commander of Bazoum's guard, announced two days later on state-run TV that he had assumed power.
Colin P. Clarke, the director of policy and research at the New York-based Soufan Group think tank, warned on Twitter that the coup and unrest in other nations in the Sahel region of Africa could provide opportunities to jihadists and Wagner.
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"Rumors of a coup attempt in #SierraLeone as fears of 'coup contagion' continue to rise. What we are seeing in #Niger and the #Sahel is a nightmare scenario for the U.S.," Clarke wrote. "Concerns over spillover into coastal West Africa. Jihadis empowered, Russian mercenaries filling power vacuums."
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Media outlets have reported that thousands of protesters who favored the coup took to the streets of Niger's capital city, Niamey, over the weekend. Many carried Russian flags and chanted messages of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But Moscow has distanced itself from the coup. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said last week that the Kremlin hoped for the "rapid release" of Bazoum. On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov furthered that sentiment by calling for "restraint on all sides."
However, the Wagner Group, which has contracts in countries such as the Central African Republic and Mali, could look to capitalize on the turmoil in Niger.
On Saturday, Reuters reported that a message posted on Telegram, believed to be from Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, praised the coup. The news agency could not confirm it was Prigozhin but said the "speaker had the same distinctive intonation and turn of phrase in Russian" as the mercenary group's leader.
The speaker congratulated Niger's military for getting "rid of the colonizers" and offered to send Wagner fighters to help restore order.
In late June, Prigozhin led a failed mutiny against Russia's military leaders, but he is said to be maintaining relations with top Kremlin officials, as evidenced by his presence during Russia's recent summit with African leaders in St. Petersburg.
In a later tweet, Clarke wrote that "we should avoid overhyping the role of Russia in instigating coups in African nations, but we also need to be careful not to underestimate Moscow's ability to take advantage of what it views not as crises, but as opportunities to project influence."
In an email, Clarke shared more thoughts on the situation in Niger. He wrote that Western countries supporting the Economic Community of West African States, a political/economic union of 15 countries in West Africa that included Niger before the coup, and "Russia supporting Niger (and Burkina Faso and Mali, if they joined in) with muscle from the Wagner Group would escalate the situation significantly."
This would "increase the chances for a broader regional conflagration," Clarke told Newsweek.
"And jihadist groups would be the obvious winners, using the turmoil to expand their reach within the Sahel, recruit new members and gain control of larger swaths of territory. I do think the chances of this are rather remote, but they aren't zero," Clarke said.
"Still, at the end of the day, the U.S., Russia, China and France all stand to lose something if the entire Sahel tips into regional state failure," he wrote.
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