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By Brendan Cole
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The evacuation of two dozen U.S. military aircraft from two British air bases due to the threat posed by Iran shows that America's forward posture is not secure from threats even in peacetime, a military analyst has told Newsweek.
At least 12 U.S. Air Force aircraft left RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk on Monday, according to flight tracking data, in what The Wall Street Journal said was in response to a threat from Tehran.
This move comes less than three weeks after another dozen American aircraft departed from the RAF Fairford base 130 miles to the west, in Gloucestershire.
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The U.K. has allowed the U.S. Air Force to deploy its aircraft from British airfields for the U.S-led war against the Islamic Republic.
Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the think tank Defense Priorities told Newsweek the second evacuation was a cause for concern.
"The bigger lesson for the United States should be that its forward posture across Europe and Asia is not secure from adversary threats even in peacetime and would not be survivable in a war," she said.
A U.S. European Command spokesperson said its aircraft are rotated between locations "for a variety of reasons including training and real-world requirements," telling Newsweek, "for operational security reasons, we are unable to discuss specific force protection."
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What Happened at RAF Mildenhall?
RAF Mildenhall is around 80 miles north of London and hosts around 3,000 personnel. The base is mostly used for refueling and maintenance operations and also as a staging area for aircraft and material bound for the Middle East.
Former U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer refused at first to let the U.S. use British military bases for the war in Iran although the U.S. Air Force was allowed to deploy from British sites for "defensive" strikes on Iran, a policy which has continued under his successor, Andy Burnham.
On Monday, at least nine American Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers and three Ospreys left RAF Mildenhall, according to data from Flightradar24, cited by media outlets.
Sky News reported how the first tanker left at 7.43am, spent two hours in a holding pattern over Germany before returning to air space in the East of England at 11.40am.
It then headed back to western Germany, where it landed at the U.S. air base of Spangdahlem at 1.30 p.m.
The next plane left at 9.25am, spending an hour over Italy and eventually landed at the same air base at 1.08 p.m.
CNN reported that four KC-135 Stratotankers went to Germany’s Spangdahlem Air Base, one to Germany’s Ramstein Air Base, four to Spain’s Morón Air Base and one to Scotland’s Glasgow Prestwick airport.
The Ospreys were relocated to RAF Lakenheath, around three miles north of Mildenhall between 1.44 p.m. and 4.20 pm UK time.
Kavanagh from Defense Priorities said that moving the aircraft to other nearby bases was odd, since they were no more secure than the original locations and showed "a short-term band aid for a serious challenge to the U.S. way of war."
Washington will have to consider major changes to U.S. military posture including closing bases and moving soldiers and assets back to the United States where they can be better protected, she said.
"These bases are the foundation of U.S. military strategy and its forward defense and their vulnerability should be five-alarm fire for the U.S. military community."
U.S. European Command said that U.S. military aircraft are hosted in accordance with access, basing, and overflight agreements with allies.
"We constantly assess a variety of factors that determine what measures are implemented or modified. In close partnership with our host nation allies, both RAF Mildenhall and RAF Lakenheath remain vigilant."
"Together, we are taking coordinated and appropriate actions to ensure the safety and security of our U.S. service members, U.S. and host nation civilians, contractors, and all of our families," it added.
No further official reason was given for the sudden relocation but Matthew Arnold, from the London School of Economics think tank LSE IDEAS, said that hostile drones posed threats around major air bases in the U.K. and Iran was getting encouragement from Russia’s experimentation.
He noted how in August, drones were found at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany in an operation Moscow was accused of being behind and that the risk of similar attacks in other countries like the UK "is high and growing."
"Even if there is no hit on an aircraft, just getting the U.S. to shift airplanes is a victory," said Arnold, director of LSE IDEAS’ Democratic Resilience in a New Age of War Program.
There are now major efforts to better secure air bases against hybrid attacks in the U.S. and this is easier there where the air bases are vast and in the middle of nowhere, said Arnold.
"This isn’t the case in the UK. The significance of these threats in the UK is major, however, because U.S. air bases in the U.K. are incredibly important for the U.S. global operations," said Arnold.
"Iran is not oblivious to where imposing costs on the U.S. can have major ramifications for its operations in the Middle East," he said, "U.S. air bases in the U.K, as in other countries, are a very useful pressure point."
The U.S. upgraded the security posture at RAF Mildenhall and another British base, RAF Lakenheath to FPCON Charlie, the WSJ report said, citing American officials.
This is the second-highest defensive threat level when intelligence indicates that a form of terrorist action is likely.
The U.K. Ministry of Defence told Newsweek in a statement: "We do not routinely comment on the activity of other nations. Aircraft and other assets move regularly according to operational requirements."
What Happened At RAF Fairford?
Monday's departures of U.S. aircraft follow a security incident at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire on September 27 in which five men were arrested near the site which is used by American bombers, including during the war in Iran.
The incident came amid concern about the security implications for Western states of the war between the U.S. and Iran.
The U.S. Department of Defense confirmed that every American bomber, deployed to Fairford—12 in all—left the base and returned to the U.S.
Two British men, Mohmed Abdulkarim, 24, and Nouman Essghir, 24, both appeared at Westminster Magistrates' Court in London on October 27 charged under the National Security Act 2023.
The group of men were ordered to drive petrol-filled vans to the RAF base, on behalf of a handler called "Ali," who police alleged was working on behalf of Iran.
The case will be heard before the Old Bailey in London on November 20.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Henry Holloway, Dave Siminoff and Trevor Davies.
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