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By Ellie Cook
Senior Defense Reporter
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A prominent U.S.-based think tank has war-gamed how a Russian invasion of NATO territory in Eastern Europe could play out in the next four years, including the seizure of part of Estonia during an armed attack.
Officials across NATO warn Moscow could execute some form of major attack on an alliance member in the coming years, but the timeline for when this could occur—and what it could look like—differs.
A new report, published by the European arm of the RAND think tank on Tuesday, theorizes that the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin in early 2027 could set off a series of events including a wave of so-called hybrid attacks, ultimately leading to NATO clashing directly with Russian soldiers in 2030.
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The RAND experts said the timeline wasn't a "prediction" but "one possible pathway" to examine threats facing NATO in the near future.
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Many analysts predict Russia will increase its so-called hybrid warfare tactics against European countries in the coming months, referring to activities that stop short of open fighting, such as cyberattacks, information campaigns or targeting vulnerable infrastructure like power grids or undersea cables. Actions could take the form of espionage or sabotage operations.
Some say a surge in such operations would be followed by a limited land-grab over the Russian border, which is generally seen as the realistic worst-case scenario for a Russian armed assault on a NATO member.
NATO members are bound by a collective defense pledge, meaning they will see an attack on one state as a stand against all, and respond accordingly. This is enshrined in Article 5 of NATO's founding treaty.
Experts and officials warn that Russia could attempt to expose divisions within NATO by carrying out a limited military attack on an allied country as soon as the next few months.
For this type of incursion, Russia wouldn't need a large number of troops, analysts say; Moscow would just require a small force that takes a sliver of land, but ultimately doesn't inspire all of NATO—including the U.S. and the Western European nations—to strike back overwhelmingly. Their failure to do so, they say, would spell the end of NATO's credibility.
Russia has repeatedly denied planning attacks on NATO, and rejected accusations it has upped its hybrid warfare campaign amid a spate of bomb hoaxes and suspected sabotage incidents in Europe in recent weeks.
In September, Danish intelligence said publicly that there was a "low but growing risk" that Moscow would carry out a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries along the Russian border. U.S. intelligence suggests this type of operation could take place between fall 2026 and 2029, The Wall Street Journal reported in August.
What Happens in the Hypothetical Scenario?
The RAND scenario begins with Putin's death in early 2027. He would leave a power vacuum in his wake, with top Kremlin officials scrambling for power. Ultimately, a senior ex-security services member would emerge victorious and be named as Putin's successor.
This new Russian leader would agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine so they can focus on domestic stability and establishing their rule from Moscow, the experts speculated.
This scenario assumes the current rounds of U.S.-brokered peace talks are ultimately unsuccessful in reaching a permanent peace deal.
In this version of the future, talks on a formal peace deal ultimately stall and the Ukraine war freezes, Moscow still in control of large parts of Ukraine but intense fighting is no longer taking place along the more than 700 miles of front line.
The newly installed Russian leader would then try to fully rebuild the Russian military, which has, as of 2026, swelled in size despite high battlefield casualties.
This Russian president would install their own allies in the Kremlin, but would contend with domestic malaise rising from the Ukraine war, and the warping impact the conflict would have had on the Russian economy by January 2028.
All the while, some Russian factions would push for action against NATO and this leader—under pressure to display dominance—would greenlight a campaign of increased hybrid attacks on Europe.
In the RAND imagining, European NATO countries are slow to react, failing to work together to combat Russian hybrid threats.
Meanwhile, by mid-2029, the U.S.' attention is caught up by some form of major crisis in South America. The current U.S. government has pursued what the administration dubs the "Donroe Doctrine"—a play on the 19th Century Monroe Doctrine, which painted the U.S. as the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere.
With the U.S. focusing on its own backyard, European nations cannot rely on large numbers of U.S. troops and lots of American equipment to defend the continent, according to the analysts.
Simultaneously, Russia would be planning to show that the NATO alliance isn't secure anymore by planning an operation to trigger Article 5, but not an overwhelming alliance response.
More hybrid attacks follow, weakening key targets like vulnerable energy infrastructure and communication networks. Within months, the experts say, Russia would use ethnic Russian populations in eastern Estonia to whip up protest movements that ultimately spin into riots engulfing the border city of Narva.
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When Tallinn cracks down on the disorder with law enforcement, the Kremlin would say its obligation to protect ethnic Russians in Narva justifies a limited land attack on the city and its nearby areas.
This plan relies on the assumption that European members of NATO would be unwilling to commit themselves to a war with Moscow. But in the RAND version of the future, the alliance sends support immediately to Estonia and engages with the Russian troops.
Caught off guard by this response, Russia would broaden the war out to the Arctic and surrounding regions, using its powerful, stealthy and advanced submarines to cut cables and communications while aerial attacks rain down on U.K. ports and air bases.
The objective, the analysts said, would be to stop the U.K.-based NATO Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC) deploying to Estonia.
The ARRC is one of two pools of quick-response troops General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's top commander in Europe, could send to the Baltic states or Poland, should Russian forces pour across the border onto alliance soil.
ARRC soldiers have war-gamed a Russia invasion of a NATO state by 2030, the year which the alliance says the threat from Moscow will be "most acute."
By fall 2030, the RAND analysis said, "large-scale warfighting ensues across the eastern flank." For several months, NATO and Russia are locked in a war of attrition, which starts to cost European nations heavily.
While Moscow retains control of Narva, the Russian president of the time would announce that Russia has been successful in shielding the ethnic Russians in Estonia.
But before NATO can push Russia out of Estonia, the Kremlin would propose a ceasefire with a tired Europe, trying to force Tallinn to stop fighting because of a lack of support from its allies.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Henry Holloway and Tony Phillips.
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