Hungarian Prime Minister and Fidesz party leader Viktor Orban and his wife Aniko Levai cast their ballots at a polling station during the Hungarian parliamentary elections in Budapest, Hungary, on April 12, 2026. This image was provided to AP by a third party and has not been independently verified.

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Ellie Cook

By Ellie Cook

Senior Defense Reporter

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Hungary's longtime leader, Viktor Orbán, is unlikely to win Sunday's parliamentary elections in the country, according to betting predictions, after most opinion polls indicated the Hungarian leader may lose out to a former government insider in a closely watched vote.

Prediction platform Kalshi put Péter Magyar, the leader of the conservative but pro-European Tisza party and a former top member of Orbán's Fidesz party, as the favorite to succeed the current prime minister with odds of 86 percent, as of 8 a.m. ET on Sunday. Orbán's reelection odds placed at 15 percent.

The betting platform put the chance of Tisza winning the parliamentary elections at 87 percent, and a victory for Fidesz at 11 percent.

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President Donald Trump and his administration's top officials, along with multiple right-wing figures across Europe, have vocally supported Orbán's reelection bid, as the European Union's longest-serving leader vies to win a fifth term in office.

Hungarian Prime Minister and Fidesz party leader Viktor Orbán and his wife Aniko Levai cast their ballots at a polling station during the Hungarian parliamentary elections in Budapest, Hungary, on April 12, 2026. This image was provided to AP by a third party and has not been independently verified.

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Orbán, widely considered a shaping influence for what would become Trump's Make America Great Again movement, draws censure from the European Union for his anti-immigration stance and blocking of funds for Ukraine, as well as hostility to LGBTQ+ rights and emphasis on traditional values.

Observers say Orbán has eroded the courts, justice and media landscape in Hungary. His government has faced allegations including intimidating journalists and vote-buying, while in turn accusing Magyar and his party of electoral fraud.

But Magyar, who split with Fidesz and accused the party of corruption in 2024, has ridden a wave of support to pose the most significant threat to Orbán's continued rule in years. His rise has been partly propelled by Tisza's anti-corruption stand.

Trump's repeated, unequivocal support for Orbán has exempted Hungary from the scathing criticism the U.S. administration has leveled at Europe. The U.S. government has not minced its words when accusing Europe of failing to protect free speech, letting defense spending lapse, and losing sight of what it termed "national identities" to risk "civilizational erasure."

Vice President JD Vance visited Budapest earlier this week in a show of support for Orbán, saying he was committed to helping the Hungarian leader win. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump was "deeply committed" to Orbán's campaign during a trip to the Hungarian capital in February.

One poll published this weekend indicated Tisza would clinch just over 52 percent of the vote, with Fidesz falling just short of 40 percent.

Another prediction platform, Polymarket, placed Magyar's odds of victory at 71 percent on Friday.

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