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Vivek Ramaswamy trailed Democrat Amy Acton in a flurry of public polls released ahead of Election Day in the Ohio governor’s race, which was upended late last month after the Republican candidate faced a wave of backlash over a campaign advertisement featuring Acton’s estranged mother.
Democrats have become increasingly optimistic about their chances of winning the Ohio governorship for the first time since 2006 amid the fallout of the ad, which defined the race in its final stretch.
Ohio has emerged as a midterm battleground this year despite its rightward drift over the past decades. The Buckeye State was a premier battleground for much of the 2000s, having backed former President Barack Obama twice before voting for President Donald Trump in all three of his races, including by 11 points in 2024. Trump’s inroads with rural, white voters helped shift the state into the Republican column.
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But Trump’s declining approval rating, as well as voter frustration over the economy and the cost of living, made the Ohio governor’s race competitive even before the ad backlash.
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Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who rose to national prominence during his 2024 presidential run, is running against Acton, who led the Ohio Department of Health during the COVID-19 pandemic. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball give Acton an edge, classifying it as leaning toward the Democratic candidate.
Polling has been close but favored Acton in the final stretch of the campaign. As of Monday, RealClearPolitics gave Acton a 4.7-point lead over Ramaswamy.
Newsweek reached out to the Acton and Ramaswamy campaigns for comment via email.
Amy Acton vs. Vivek Ramaswamy: Final Ohio Governor Race Polls
The latest poll of the race from The New York Times and Siena University showed Acton up 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent, among 717 likely voters from October 26 to November 1. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Acton also led by 3 points in a poll from InsiderAdvantage, 49 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters on October 29 and 30, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
A YouGov poll gave Acton a 6-point lead, 52 percent to 46 percent, among 2,082 likely voters from October 26 to 29. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Acton also led by 5 points in a Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters from October 21 to 26, with 48 percent support to Ramaswamy’s 44 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Vivek Ramaswamy Ad Upends Governor’s Race
The Ramaswamy ad featured Acton’s estranged mother Donna Arthur speaking directly to the camera about her daughter, urging Ohio voters not to elect Acton. The ad drew criticism as Acton has discussed experiencing sexual abuse and homelessness during her childhood.
"I love my daughter, but when I saw her lying about her opponent—and it's not easy for a mother to say this—but Amy has a serious problem," Arthur says in the video. "She is a liar. She lies about her past."
Acton's brother, Philip Stearns, wrote in a statement released by the Acton campaign that their mother lost custody of her children after her husband, Cledith Arthur, was arrested and charged with sexually abusing Acton. Stearns said the pair were together until his death.
The ad drew bipartisan criticism.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, a Republican, told reporters he believed the Ramaswamy campaign running the ad was "wrong," and that it should have been taken down. Political commentator Meghan McCain called the ad "dastardly" on social media.
"It never should have been created. Shame on whatever consultant firm created this," she wrote.
However, Ramaswamy has stood by the ad, and Republicans such as Trump have pushed back on criticism.
"It's a mother speaking badly against Amy Acton, and to me, it's very easy," Trump told reporters last week. "If it were my mother speaking badly about me, you'd be making it the number one story in the news."
Vice President JD Vance said last month he was “a little bit disgusted when I see Republicans across the country who are whining more about that advertisement than they are about what the congressional Democrats and other Democrats want to do to the United States of America."
The ad has since “ran to completion,” Ramaswamy told reporters last week.
Why Democrats Believe Ohio Is Competitive Again
Democrats have believed the race was competitive even before the ad backlash.
Trump's 11-point win in 2024 was the largest Republican margin in Ohio in decades, underscoring the rightward realignment in the state. Obama won it by more than 4 points in 2008 and about 3 points in 2012, before it flipped to Republicans. The state backed Trump by about 8 points in 2016 and 2020.
That trend has been driven by Trump's inroads with white working-class voters who were previously more politically mixed. His gains came from rural counties as well as the northeastern region near Cleveland. Democrats have gained some ground in Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs, but not enough to offset Republicans' momentum in the rural areas.
Midterm dynamics and Trump’s struggling approval numbers have fueled Democrats’ hopes that Ohio could be competitive again this year.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms when the president is unpopular, so Democrats believe Trump's low national approval rating will translate into electoral gains for them in the midterms.
Concerns around the economy and affordability, as well as data centers, have also been central to the Ohio race.
What Do Prediction Markets Show?
Acton is favored in prediction markets, having an 82 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and an 83 percent chance on Polymarket as of Monday.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
What Time Do Polls Close in Ohio?
Polls in Ohio will be open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Tuesday.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Edward T. Cummins
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