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By Tom Howarth
Science Reporter (Nature)
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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking an evolving storm in the western Caribbean that is expected to intensify and head northward in the coming days, possibly making landfall in the United States by Thursday.
A tropical storm will likely form in the next two days, which could develop into a hurricane before reaching Florida or the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast later this week, with residents being warned to closely monitor its progress.
The NHC said in a Tropical Weather Outlook: "Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea."
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It continued: "Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development is expected."
The system has an 80 percent chance of forming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a 90 percent chance in the next seven days.
Alexander Duffus, a meteorologist at AccuWeather, told Newsweek: "The areas that are most likely to be impacted are the Florida Panhandle on Thursday evening, with strong winds, flooding rainfall and a dangerous storm surge."
"The highest impacts are expected where the hurricane will make landfall in the Big Bend of Florida. There can be widespread power outages due to downed power lines across the region. As the storm continues inland, there will be flooding, rainfall and winds that spread across the Southeast, southern Appalachians, mid-South, Ozarks and mid-Mississippi River Valley late into the week."
Gulf Coast residents, from New Orleans, Louisiana, to Key West, Florida, including the Tampa Bay area, should stay alert and monitor the potential storm's progress.
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AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva warned in an update that tall pine trees along Florida's Big Bend and Nature Coast areas pose a particular threat. "Those trees can be incredibly dangerous in hurricane-force winds. We saw a lot of trees fall onto houses and damage parked cars when Idalia hit the Big Bend region last August," he said.
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Tropical depressions are the weakest type of tropical cyclones. When a depression's maximum sustained winds increase to 39 mph, it becomes a tropical storm, at which point it is given a name.
If the winds reach 74 mph or higher, the system is classified as a hurricane, typhoon or tropical cyclone, depending on its origin. The term hurricane is used in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific and eastern North Pacific.
According to the NHC's convention, the storm will be named Helene if it reaches tropical storm strength.
"There are a few factors that are driving the growth or strengthening of this system," Duffus said.
"One, high ocean surface temperatures as well as deep ocean heat content will be ample fuel for storm strengthening. There is also very little wind shear, which typically works to disrupt hurricane development. An increase in moisture will fight away dry air, making an environment that is favorable for strong hurricane development."
According to AccuWeather experts, the system is currently forecast to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane; however, this will likely increase to Category 3 as more data is analyzed over the coming hours.
"A good rule of thumb is that you want to prepare at least for the next category up from what we're forecasting," DaSilva said in a media briefing.
Regardless of potential further development, the weather system will produce heavy rainfall across eastern parts of Nicaragua, Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula through Wednesday, as well as near Cuba and the Cayman Islands through Thursday.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible in these areas, the NHC said.
Meanwhile, in the eastern and central Atlantic, another tropical disturbance has a 70 percent chance of tropical storm formation in the next seven days. The depression is currently located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, and is forecast to move west-northwestward over the course of the week.
The storms come following a warning from the National Weather Service that 2024 would see above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. The enhanced activity was expected as a consequence of near-record warm ocean temperatures coinciding with the development of the La Nina weather phenomenon, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which facilitate tropical storm formation.
The hurricane season officially ends on November 30.
Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about tropical storms? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.
Update 09/24/24, 5:20 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information and comment from Alexander Duffus.
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