WGC-Mexico Championship: Best Picks, Latest Odds and Sleepers for PGA Tour Event

Rory McIlroy is the bookmakers' favorite to win the WGC-Mexico Championship at at the Club de Golf Chapultepec in Naucalpan, just outside Mexico City this week.

The Northern Irishman finished tied for fifth at the Genesis Invitational last week at 8-under par, three shots adrift of winner Adam Scott.

Coupled with his tied for third finish at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines last month, the 30-year-old has two top-five finishes in two starts this year.

Dating back to 2019, the four-time major winner has finished in the top five in each of his last five starts.

According to Oddschecker, McIlroy arrives in Mexico as a 13/2 favorite to pick up his first win of the year.

McIlroy has a good feeling with the course, finishing tied for seventh in 2017 and runner up last year, behind Dustin Johnson.

A two-time winner at Club de Golf Chapultepec, the American is a 15/2 second-favorite to retain his title this year. Johnson finished tied for 10th last week at the Genesis Invitational—his second top-10 finish in the last three starts—and was within one shot of the lead at one point.

In his last three appearances in Mexico City, the 2016 U.S. Open winner has shot a combined 47 under the par and looks a good bet to secure a first win in a year, which incidentally came at the WCG Mexico Championship.

Behind McIlroy and Johnson, Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas are both 10/1 shots, while Adam Scott and Webb Simpson are 18/1 outsiders.

Rahm finished tied for 17th at the Genesis Invitational last week, with a 1-over par final round of 72 proving damaging to any chance of a comeback. The finish marked the first time in five starts the world No. 3 hasn't finished in the top-10 but was another solid display for the Spaniard, who currently ranks eight on the PGA Tour in shots gained in putting.

It may seem slightly surprising to see Thomas as short as 10/1 given he missed the cut last week, failing to be involved in the final two days for the second time in three time starts, having missed the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii last month.

At the same time, however, the 26-year-old has five top-five finishes, including two wins, in his last eight starts and finished ninth in Chapultepec last year.

Scott, meanwhile, arrives in Mexico on the back of his first PGA Tour win in almost four years after triumphing at the Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club, California, last week.

Aside from last week's win, Scott has two top-20 finishes in his last four starts and ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in terms of total strokes gained so far this season.

Simpson returns to action after sitting out the Genesis Invitational and is one of the most in-form players on the circuit, finishing in the top 10 in each of his last five starts, which included a third place at the Sony Open in Hawaii and a triumph at the Phoenix Open earlier this month.

Tommy Fleetwood is a 20/1 shot as he makes his first appearance across the Atlantic in over six months. The world No. 11 won the Nedbank Golf Championship in South Africa in November, which he followed up with second and 11th place finishes at the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai and the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship last month.

When it comes to long shots, Sergio Garcia is an intriguing bet at 40/1. The 2018 Masters champion has finished in the top-15 in the last three years at Chapultepec, including back-to-back top-10 finishes over the last two years.

Bubba Watson, meanwhile, is a 50/1 shot. The Floridian missed the cut at Riviera last week but had three top-10 finishes in as many starts before that and has shot a combined 13-under par at Chapultepec in the last three seasons.

Rory McIlroy, PGA Tour
Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland plays his second shot on the par 5, first hole during the final round of the Genesis Invitational at The Riviera Country Club on February 16 in Pacific Palisades, California. David Cannon/Getty