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By Joe Edwards
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Forecasts continue to suggest that a “super” El Niño could emerge later this year, which may impact how the 2026 hurricane season plays out, according to meteorologists.
Why It Matters
“El Niño is when ocean water in the Pacific warms up warmer than historical averages, and this year, it's expected to develop this summer and strengthen during hurricane season,” said AccuWeather reporter Anna Azallion in a video posted to YouTube on Tuesday. “There's even about a 15 percent chance it becomes a super El Niño, something we've only seen once since the year 2000.”
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What To Know
“El Niño conditions are associated with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, especially in the western Atlantic Ocean Basin,” Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead for it’s seasonal hurricane outlook told Newsweek.
While tropical development in the Atlantic could be suppressed, Rosencrans said the opposite may occur in the Pacific.
“El Niño conditions are associated with more tropical storm and hurricane activity during the eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons."
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El Niño is a natural climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean and the warm phase of the El Niño‑Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It develops when trade winds that usually blow west along the equator weaken, allowing warm surface water to move east toward the west coast of the Americas, according to the NOAA.
As this happens, the normal rise of cold, nutrient‑rich water from below the ocean surface weakens or can stop altogether. These changes in ocean conditions affect weather patterns, the agency said.
During El Niño, the Pacific jet stream moves south of its typical position, which is linked to drier and warmer conditions in the Northern U.S. and Canada, and wetter conditions across the Southern U.S, it adds.
According to AccuWeather, El Niño occurs when ocean water in the tropical Eastern Pacific close to the equator reaches at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above long-term normals for at least three months in a row.
It defined a “super El Niño” as ocean temperatures reaching 2 degrees Celsius or greater above average in the ENSO region.
AccuWeather forecasters also reported that El Niño can also influence where storms tend to develop, at times shifting activity farther into the Atlantic rather than closer to the U.S. coast.
What People Are Saying
Washington Post weather writer and meteorologist Ben Noll said on X, Monday: “Strongest El Niño on record this year?!
“New [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts] guidance shows a *75% chance of a super El Niño* by October, with some scenarios suggesting the most intense event in more than a century.”
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in a report: “The strength of El Niño late in the season could have a dramatic impact on late October/November activity.
“The stronger the El Niño gets, the greater the chance for a quieter end to the season.”
What Happens Next
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts through November 30.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season starts May 15 and also runs through November 30.
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