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By Ellie Cook
Senior Defense Reporter
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Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed late Thursday that Russia had fired an experimental hypersonic ballistic missile at Ukraine the night before, amid conflicting reports over the type of the weapon used in the strike.
Putin was speaking on television in Russia when he elaborated on the type of missile that was used in the strike on Dnipro, according to news agencies and Russian media.
"Among the operations carried out was the testing of one of Russia's latest medium-range missile systems. In this case, a ballistic missile equipped with a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead was used," Putin said, according to the Moscow Times. "Russian missile operators named the system 'Oreshnik.' The tests were deemed successful, with the target being hit as intended."
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He warned the West that Moscow could strike the military installations of any country whose weapons were used against Russia, according to Reuters.
Russia had conducted combat tests of the "Oreshnik" (the hazel) hypersonic missile system in response to the aggressive actions of NATO countries against Russia, Putin said. "In response to the use of American and British long-range weapons, on November 21 of this year, the Russian armed forces launched a combined strike on one of the facilities of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine."
The missile was launched at the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro from Russia's southwestern Astrakhan region, Ukraine's air force said, adding Moscow separately fired a Kinzhal hypersonic missile and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles.
Earlier, Russia's Defense Ministry had not acknowledged the reports of a suspected ICBM strike, while the Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry swerved questions on the alleged ICBM use in Thursday briefings. Experts were also throwing doubt over whether the missile was an ICBM, suggesting Russia may have fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile as Ukraine starts up more extensive investigations into the launch.
The strike comes shortly after the U.S. closed its embassy in the capital, saying it had "received specific information of a potential significant air attack" on Wednesday.
U.S. officials said earlier this week that Washington had approved Ukraine's use of American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, against Russian territory in a reversal of a long-held White House policy. Russia said Ukraine had used six ATACMS on Russia's border Bryansk region in an "escalation" of the conflict.
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The U.K. has not yet publicly confirmed whether it has given Ukraine the green light to fire British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia, but several British media outlets reported that Kyiv had used the air-launched missiles for the first time.
Earlier this week, Moscow updated its nuclear doctrine to justify a nuclear strike against a nation without nuclear weapons, if that country attacks Russia and is backed by a nuclear power. The change came the same day that Ukraine marked 1,000 days of full-scale war with its neighbor, amid concerns over how U.S. support for Ukraine will change when president-elect Donald Trump steps back into the White House in January.
Kurt Volker, a former U.S. Ambassador to NATO who also served as U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, suggested to Newsweek that Russia may be hoping to make its nuclear rhetoric more frightening through this missile strike.
Putin may have been waiting for Trump to address Ukraine when he takes office in the new year, Mattias Eken, an analyst with the European branch of the RAND think tank, told Newsweek. "But the U.S. recently allowing missile launches towards Russia may have prompted a response aimed at strengthening Russia's negotiating position," he added.
The Kremlin leader "wants to negotiate from a position of a strength, that is obvious," Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko told Newsweek.
Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon official, said on Thursday he was "not surprised" that Russia would launch a conventionally-armed ICBM in its war effort against Ukraine. "It's a step up in terms of the delivery vehicle," Townsend said, responding to a Newsweek question during a panel at the Royal United Services Institute, a U.K.-based defense think tank.
"There are a lot of things that Putin is doing right now to express displeasure over ATACMS," Townsend said, but also to set the tone for the incoming Trump administration.
Militarily, using a relatively inaccurate ICBM for this type of strike makes no sense, said William Alberque, a visiting fellow at the Henry L. Stimson Center and a former director of NATO's Arms Control, Disarmament, and WMD Non-Proliferation Centre.
Moscow had pledged to respond strongly to U.S. approval for ATACMS use against Russian soil, making this a "political signal" crafted with a weapon out of favor with the Kremlin, but assured to get through Ukraine's air defenses, he told Newsweek.
Ukraine does not have a system designed to intercept incoming ICBMs. There are questions over whether the U.S. detected the launch through its extensive early warning systems.
An unnamed U.S. official told NBC News that Russia did not fire an ICBM at Ukraine, disputing Kyiv's claim.
What is an intercontinental ballistic missile, and is it a nuclear weapon?
An ICBM is a ballistic missile that can travel distances greater than 5,500 kilometers, or roughly 3,417 miles. They are considered strategic weapons, able to carry nuclear warheads.
Their long range means that they can threaten an enemy's soil from thousands of miles away. The U.S. is currently upgrading its Minuteman III ICBMs, which form the ground-based part of its nuclear triad, to Sentinel ICBMs.
The ICBM reported by Ukraine is thought to be a road-mobile RS-26, also known as the Rubezh missile. It can carry a nuclear or conventional payload, or have multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles that carry explosives to several different targets.
However, there are doubts about whether an RS-26 was used, or whether it was an intermediate-range ballistic missile able to travel shorter distances. Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, said the "characteristics" of the missile, including its speed and altitude, had indicated it was an ICBM, but that investigations were underway.
The RS-26 has been tested at ranges falling below the classification for an ICBM, which has prompted concerns that Russia has gone against the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. This treaty, signed between the U.S. and the then-Soviet Union in the 1980s, banned ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges above 500 kilometers and below 5,500 kilometers.
The Rubezh never officially entered service, and is still classed as under development.
A former Ukrainian official told Newsweek that the ICBM targeting Dnipro carried around 1,200 kilograms of explosives, and "works like a cluster bomb," dividing into six separate warheads before hitting the target. Ukraine's air force declined to comment when approached by Newsweek.
Video footage purportedly from the strike appears to show six different clusters of munitions, reportedly hitting the Yuzhmash defense and space plant. Newsweek could not independently verify this.
The facility is one of Ukraine's most important missile factories, said Alberque.
Serhiy Lysak, the regional governor for the Dnipropetrovsk region covering Dnipro, said an industrial building, several houses, garages and a rehabilitation center were damaged. Two people were injured, Lysak said.
Has an ICBM Been Used Before?
Much is still unclear about the launch, but if confirmed, this would be the first combat use of a conventional ICBM or intermediate-range ballistic missile in history.
Analysts say that if Russia did use a Rubezh missile, it would not be the practical choice for a target like the Dnipro facility.
"The RS-26 is designed to carry nuclear warheads, but evidently it did not do so in this attack," said William Freer, research fellow at the U.K.-based Council on Geostrategy think tank.
"Russia has likely used the RS-26 as a way to try and intimidate Ukraine's supporters by raising tensions over the employment of a nuclear capable ballistic missile, one capable of hitting European capitals," Freer added. "Its use is a signal rather than based on a military need."
Update 11/21/2024 at 9:20 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 11/21/2024 at 12 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 11/21/2024 at 1:35 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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