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By Tom Norton
Fact Check Reporter
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Iowa Republicans will take part in caucuses across the state on Monday evening, voting for who they want to lead the party into the 2024 presidential election, with former President Donald Trump expected to gather the most support.
The Iowa caucuses are the earliest date in the presidential election calendar, ahead of state primaries. The results of it are seen by some as a lodestar for who will make the final fight for the White House.
A Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom Iowa Poll published Saturday night shows Trump is the clear favorite on 48 percent, with former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley in second place on 20 percent and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis third on 16 percent.
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The Iowa contest is unusual for how early it plays out in the year, its significance to candidates despite representing a small percentage of voters, and its difference from usual primary contests. Newsweek has investigated what makes the Iowa caucus important and to exactly spell out...
What Is a Caucus?
In a caucus, local members of each political party meet in each of the state's precincts to discuss and determine which candidate they would like to represent their party in the general election. They vote on the candidate they prefer, and the number of votes a candidate receives determines how many delegates will represent them at the party's national convention.
Iowa holds caucuses instead of presidential primary elections. The contest in Iowa is the first held in the country and is seen by many as a bellwether for who will go on to become the presidential candidate for each party.
Caucuses are organized by political parties. Although there will be a Democratic caucus this year, it will be only to handle official party business and for some lower county position elections.
Since 2000, every Democratic candidate who won the Iowa caucuses became the nominee, except in 2020. Trump won the 2020 Iowa Republican caucus, but in several previous elections this century, Iowa voters have not chosen the eventual Republican nominee.
Nonetheless, Republican candidates have been fighting hard for this contest, with DeSantis visiting all of Iowa's 99 counties in the lead-up.
How Is It Organised?
All Republicans voting in the caucus must appear in person at one of Iowa's 1,600 sites by 7 p.m. Those who arrive afterwards will not be allowed inside. Caucus-goers must be eligible to vote by the general election date; so, 17-year-olds can vote in the caucus but must be 18 by November 5, 2024.
Unlike in a primary where ballots are cast throughout the day, with the option to cast an absentee ballot, voters must attend the Iowa caucus at the set time.
The caucus begins with speeches where supporters for each candidate make their case, followed by a secret paper ballot that is counted on the night.
Iowa's GOP told reporters earlier in January, as it discussed how its caucus would be organized, that while it will report the results, it will not declare an official winner.
The voting at each caucus will then be used to determine the share of delegates each candidate has going into the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July. The number of delegates each candidate has will determine who will become the GOP presidential nominee. Of the estimated 2,429 national delegates, at least 1,215 are needed to win the nomination.
Why Is the Iowa Caucus Significant?
Although Iowa only has 40 Republican delegates to hand out from its caucus, the contest's influence on the national conversation makes it an important moment for the two major parties in the U.S. presidential race.
Caucuses have been held in Iowa since 1846 when it joined the Union. A 1983 paper by Hugh Winebrenner, The Evolution of the Iowa Precinct Caucuses, notes how the system was unregulated, with political party heads in control. Accusations flew around that special interest groups within parties corrupted the process in their favor.
"The times and locations of caucuses often were closely guarded secrets, and 'snap' caucuses were a favorite device of those 'in the know'," Winebrenner wrote
"The knowledgeable would assemble on short notice, elect a slate of delegates to the county convention, and quickly adjourn."
It was eventually brought in under electoral law and the contests in Iowa continued without much national interest or attention. Things changed in 1972 when the Democratic party began holding caucuses earlier in the year following the chaotic 1968 Democratic convention.
The GOP followed in 1976, the same year that former President Jimmy Carter won the Democrats' caucus vote in the state, throwing him into the national spotlight from relative obscurity.
While Trump is leading in the state, mirroring national results, the Iowa caucus has not consistently predicted the Republicans' national candidate. For example, in 2016 Texas Senator Ted Cruz won, receiving about 6,000 more votes than Donald Trump (51,666 to 45,427) and had eight delegates to Trump's seven.
National polling indicates Trump has a strong lead in his bid for the 2024 GOP nomination. An analysis of recent polls by the website FiveThirtyEight found the former president is the preferred candidate of 62.8 percent of likely Republican primary voters. Haley (11.9 percent) and DeSantis (11.8 percent) trail Trump by significant margins.
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