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By Ellie Cook
Senior Defense Reporter
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With no declared winner in what many Israelis see as the most important election in the country's history, current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power for now, with his political future hanging in the balance. Experts detailed four possible outcomes to Newsweek.
With 85 percent of votes counted, the pro-Netanyahu camp has secured 53 seats, while parties aligned with main challenger Gadi Eisenkot have won 48 seats, according to Israeli election officials.
A majority in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, requires at least 61 seats. Israeli Arab parties won 19 seats, which Israeli media described as a "historic" high and that put them in a potentially decisive position in coalition talks.
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Tuesday's election recorded the highest voter turnout in decades, and was widely seen as a judgment on Netanyahu's stewardship of the Israeli war in Gaza following the October 7 attacks in 2023, the U.S.-led war with Iran, Israel's relationship with the U.S. and the country's increasing isolation from the rest of the world.
Ahead of the vote, observers suggested the race would be a knife-edge contest between Netanyahu's right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc and those siding with former military chief Eisenkot.
Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot said they would try to form a government, which could mean weeks of maneuvering, with the incumbent remaining in power as caretaker leader until a new government coalesces.
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While opposition politicians heralded the exit polls as a resounding defeat for Netanyahu, some analysts caution that the prime minister, who has spent nearly two decades in power, has a history of surviving apparently career-ending crises.
With experts divided on the most likely next steps, what are the potential options for those vying for power in Israel now?
Scenario 1: Another Election
Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, called on all parties to do "everything" to avoid another election and approach coalition negotiations "with an open mind."
Herzog oversees the power jockeying, nominating one candidate to form a government. This chosen candidate has up to 42 days to cobble together a ruling coalition.
Herzog is likely to push Netanyahu to make Eisenkot an offer to build a coalition, but the "odds are strongly against this," said Ezra Hess, a research associate for Middle Eastern studies with the Council on Foreign Relations.
A second round of parliamentary elections would be triggered by the rounds of coalition talks failing. It would follow much the same pattern as Tuesday's vote, but it's not clear how the candidates would change their stances in an attempt to gain enough votes to form a government.
A fresh vote is the most probable scenario, Yaakov Katz, the former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post newspaper, told Newsweek. This would mean "nobody budges, nobody breaks a promise, and neither bloc assembles 61 seats," he said.
Scenario 2: Netanyahu Clubs Together Defectors, Unity Government
But if Netanyahu's bloc gets closer to clinching half of the Knesset's 120 seats, he could look for "individual defectors" to join him, said Katz.
Currently, Netanyahu's camp, including the United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism parties, is still 8 seats short of 61.
"Knowing how to play the system to stay in power, Netanyahu can scrape together enough seats to form a majority," argued Rachel Nelson, an analyst at the Middle East Policy Council. Yet defections drifting over from the opposition bloc are "highly unlikely," she told Newsweek.
Hypothetically, Netanyahu could pull the remaining seats he needs from Eisenkot's Yashar party, and others in the broad opposition force, rather than a more natural right-wing ally. Netanyahu, however, had pledged not to abandon his traditional partners.
In one extreme case, Netanyahu could join renewed U.S. attacks on Iran, which may prompt the U.S. to pressure Israeli opposition politicians to join the current prime minister, Nelson said.
"This would be an unstable government and would likely result in renewed elections once the offensive against Iran simmers down or concludes," she added.
Otherwise, Netanyahu could try to convince B’Yachad—led by former Israeli prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid—Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu party or even Eisenkot's Yashar to join him.
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But this would mean Netanyahu's Likud would be forced to negotiate on several key issues, such as ultra-Orthodox military service —which may cost him the likes of far-right figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, said Katz.
"It is difficult to imagine" this path succeeding, he added.
Eisenkot, meanwhile, has so far ruled out joining a Netanyahu-steered coalition. Bennett is unlikely to leave his opposition colleagues to join Netanyahu alone, added Hess.
A more remote possibility, Hess said, would be Eisenkot joining with Likud without Netanyahu at the helm.
Scenario 3: Israeli Arabs Get a Look In
For the opposition, under Eisenkot, to rule, they would likely need the cooperation of the Arab list parties in some form. Joining up with the Arab parties would be "the quickest way to ensure Netanyahu and his coalition are removed from power," said Nelson.
However, Eisenkot has said the United Arab List party, also known as Ra’am, won't be a part of any government he heads because of differences in what Eisenkot requires in coalition partners, such as describing the Palestinian militant group Hamas as a terror organization to be dismantled.
Eisenkot has also stated he can only form a government with parties that support Israel as a democratic, Jewish state, back the Declaration of Independence and universal conscription.
This excludes Israeli Arab parties and Haredi ultra-Orthodox Jewish factions, he said. For various reasons, Arab and Haredi parties are probably not going to be able to satisfy Eisenkot's four demands, Hess said.
But Yair Golan, the leader of Israel's major left-wing party that falls under Eisenkot's broad bloc, called for an alliance with the Arab list parties.
If the Democrats make significant gains in the U.S. midterms next week, this type of arrangement could become more appealing in Israel as a way to maintain ties between the two countries, Nelson said.
Eisenkot's camp would still have to contend, though, with an Israeli public that was promised by several Eisenkot-aligned parties that they wouldn't link up with Arab parties, Nelson continued.
Meanwhile, Yousef Jabareen, the chairman of the Arab-majority Joint List party, declared any bloc wanting "to offer a substantive and genuine alternative to Netanyahu’s government of bloodshed will have to talk to us."
Yet even if Eisenkot did join with Ra'am, it would not put him past the 61-seat threshold, Hess said. "The Arab parties' greatest influence right now is that it is increasingly difficult for either side to form a coalition without a major compromise."
Scenario 4: Eisenkot-led Minority Government, Without Arab Participation
Another option in front of Eisenkot would be for the Arab lists to vote alongside Eisenkot's bloc or abstain, but not be a part of the ruling coalition.
"This scenario is politically risky and could lead to a quick vote of no confidence down the line, resulting in another round of elections," said Nelson. But it could become more appealing to Eisenkot if Netanyahu greenlights Israel joining fresh American attacks on Iran, paving the wave for Netanyahu to be pulled from power, she added.
Throwing a spanner in the works is Liberman's pledge not to participate in a minority government, including one that hinges on Arab parties voting a particular way or abstaining.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Gray R. Thomas
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