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By Giulia Carbonaro
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A U.S. Supreme Court decision blocking a Republican-backed congressional map in Missouri has narrowed one of the GOP’s clearest opportunities to pick up an additional seat in the House, undermining their battle for control of Congress.
The court’s rejection of the Republican-backed map on Thursday leaves little visible pathway for it to be used in November, making it more likely that the state will use the 2022 map with the congressional districts passed after the last census, as ordered by the Missouri Supreme Court.
Missouri was one of the clearest opportunities for Republicans in November to gain an additional seat in the House, where they hold a razor-thin majority. But the Supreme Court’s rejection represents a clear roadblock in this direction, marking one of the biggest setbacks yet to Republicans’ midterm redistricting push.
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The court’s decision deals a particular blow to President Donald Trump, who has championed mid-cycle redistricting efforts in Republican-led states as a way of protecting the party’s fragile House majority. The strategy has taken on greater urgency as the president has faced plunging approval ratings since the start of the war in Iran and voter anxiety over persistent cost-of-living pressures.
American elections analyst Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections, told Newsweek “at the very least, the decision takes seat away from Republicans and returns it to Democrats.”
The decision “makes it likely that the Democrats will hold on to the 5th district seat which the Republicans had redrawn to increase their chances to flip it, and it makes the 2nd district more competitive, which gives the Democrats an outside chance to take it,” Peverill Squire, professor emeritus at the University of Missouri, told Newsweek.
Newsweek contacted the White House for comment by email on Friday morning and is awaiting a response.
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How Republicans Tried to Change Missouri’s Congressional Map
The new congressional map drawn by Missouri Republicans would have made the Kansas City-area district held by Democrat Emanuel Cleaver more competitive for GOP candidates, creating one additional Republican-leaning congressional seat.
Republicans currently have a six to two advantage over Democrats, but the new map would have given them seven seats.
Under the 2022 map passed after the last census, the 5th Congressional District encompasses the Kansas City area only. The revised map backed by Trump would dramatically alter the district’s makeup, removing portions of its current footprint and stretching it into Republican-leaning rural areas.
AP estimated that about 59 percent of the district’s voters would be newcomers under the proposed boundaries.
While being used in the August primary, the use of the new Trump-backed map in the November midterms was blocked by the Missouri Supreme Court, which said it could not take effect without voters first approving it via referendum.
The issue escalated to the Supreme Court, which has declined to restore the GOP-backed map for November, leaving the lower-court ruling in place while litigation continues.
This week’s decision by the court leaves Missouri voters facing an unlikely situation: the November general election in the state could run with different U.S. House districts than those used in the August primary. This change could switch the candidate choices for more than a million Missouri potential voters, or nearly 1 in 4, according to an Associated Press estimate.
“After repeated legal victories defending Missouri’s fair and lawful map, this eleventh-hour ruling pulls the rug out from under voters who already cast their primary ballots. While Democrats play games with ballots and maps, the RNC will continue to fight to protect Missouri voters' voices,” Ally Triolo, RNC election integrity communications director, told Newsweek.
Where Does This Leave the Midterms’ Redistricting Battle
In isolation, losing the chance of winning a single additional congressional seat might not seem very significant.
But the Missouri case is part of the broader national redistricting war that has unfolded ahead of the 2026 midterm elections—and with the current balance within the U.S. House, a single seat going Republican could have made a huge difference.
Since last year, both parties have sought to redraw congressional boundaries outside the normal post-census redistricting cycle. Republican-led states including Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Missouri pursued new maps expected to benefit GOP candidates, while Democrats answered with their own efforts in states like California. Courts have also intervened in multiple states, reshaping the political landscape months before voters head to the polls.
“Overall, Republicans are still winning the redistricting battle, because more maps have been redrawn in the past year to favor Republicans than to favor Democrats,” David Kimball, professor of political science at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, told Newsweek.
“Despite the mid-decade GOP redistricting push, I think the Democrats are likely to win a majority of seats in the House in this year’s midterm elections. Voter concerns about inflation and the Iran war, and President Trump’s low job approval numbers, have created headwinds for Republicans defending seats this fall,” he added.
Kondik agrees. “In aggregate, Republicans won the redistricting war in the sense that the overall House map is redder than it was before,” he said.
“One way to measure this is the median House district by 2024 presidential vote. Prior to any redistricting this cycle, the median seat was Trump +3, 1.5 points redder than the national popular vote, indicating a small Republican bias. Now the median set is Trump +4.5, so the bias is a little larger,” he said.
“However, Republicans may only end up netting a few seats directly because of redistricting, because some of the seats they designed to be won by Republicans might stick with Democrats. Democrats remain favored to win the House.”
Only one Democratic-led state has adopted a new map—California. In the Golden State, Democrats—who currently hold a 43-9 majority—are seeking to gain five seats. Two more blue states—New York and Maryland—are considering adopting new congressional maps for 2028.
By comparison, eight Republican-led states successfully adopted new maps, including Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah. In Alabama, Louisiana, North Carolina and Tennessee, Republicans are seeking to gain one seat each; in Ohio, two; in Florida, four; in Texas, five. In Utah, with a 4-0 GOP majority, the Democrats are aiming to add one seat. In Mississippi and Missouri, Republicans are considering adopting a new map for 2028.
In total, Republicans would have added 15 seats by redistricting alone. Democrats, by comparison, would have added six. Redistricting attempts have failed in Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Maryland, New York, South Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin.
The GOP success in the redistricting battle does not necessarily translate into certain victory in the upcoming midterms. “Whether their advantage materializes in November depends on the strength of any Democratic wave,” Squire said.
“It appears at this point that the Democrats are likely to take control of the House. The question is whether their voter support is sufficient to give then a comfortable majority or only a small one.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes, James Debens and Emma Lee-Sang
Update 9/14/26, 6:00 a.m. ET: This article was updated to include comments from David Kimball, Kyle Kondik, Peverill Squire and Ally Triolo.
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