What Polls Say About David Perdue, Jon Ossoff One Week Before the Georgia Senate Election

Republican Sen. David Perdue is in a tight race with Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff in the Georgia runoff one week out from Election Day, according to the latest polls and analyses.

In more than half a dozen polls conducted in the past two weeks, Ossoff and Perdue have come up neck-and-neck—even trading leader positions but well within the margin of error.

As of Tuesday, the polling analysis from FiveThirtyEight, had Perdue with less than a percentage point lead, after two polls conducted through Monday produced two different outcomes. Both polls were within the margins of error.

The Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group, which was recognized for predicting Donald Trump's win four years ago, found Ossoff in the lead, polling at 50 percent to Perdue's 48 percent.

Meanwhile, the Open Model Project, in its own survey, found Perdue up 50 percent to Ossoff's 46 percent. Both of the recent surveys included more than 1,000 likely voters beginning last week.

The fight between Perdue and Ossoff is one of two in Georgia that ultimately could decide which party will control the Senate when President-elect Joe Biden takes office on January 20. Perdue has been in the Senate since 2014. Ossoff previously made an unsuccessful run for Georgia's 6th District seat in the U.S. House. Separately, U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler is battling the Rev. Raphael Warnock for the second seat. Warnock and Ossoff have campaigned together in the rare dual Senate race, as have Loeffler and Perdue.

Former Vice President Joe Biden won a narrow victory over President Donald Trump in Georgia's presidential election last month, becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate to win there in nearly three decades.

Biden's win galvanized both Republicans and Democrats around the Senate runoff races, with control of the upper chamber at stake, Biden and Trump have both made trips to the state to campaign for their respective duos in recent weeks, among other high-profile surrogates.

But despite the intense interest in the race, fewer than a dozen polls have been publicly released on the Senate match-ups since the start of December.

Early voting began December 14 and already has already seen record turnout for a runoff in Georgia's history.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, an election analyst project at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, has deemed the race a "toss up."

In the regular election last month, Perdue took 49.7 percent of the vote to Ossoff's 48 percent. A Libertarian candidate also on the ballot took just enough votes to force a runoff since no one topped 50 percent.

Georgia voters
Voters line up for the first day of early voting outside of the High Museum polling station on December 14, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. Georgians are headed to the polls to vote in a run off election for two U.S. Senate seats. Jessica McGowan/Getty