What Polls Say About Mitch McConnell Vs. Amy McGrath With Seven Days Until the Election

With just one week until Election Day, Kentucky Senate polls show Republican Senator Mitch McConnell leading Democratic candidate Amy McGrath.

One poll conducted by Cygnal, a national survey research and polling company, shows the Senate majority leader ahead by approximately 10 points. According to the survey, 50.2 percent of voters in Kentucky said they'd vote for McConnell, while 39.9 percent said they'd vote for McGrath if the election were held today.

This poll surveyed 640 likely general election voters in Kentucky from October 19 to 20 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.87 percentage points.

Another poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy found McConnell holding a similar lead. Fifty-one percent chose McConnell as their preferred candidate, compared with 42 percent that said they'd vote for McGrath.

This poll surveyed 625 registered voters from October 12 to 15 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A third poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University, found McConnell holding an even larger lead, with a margin of 12 points. Fifty-three percent of respondents said they'd vote for the Republican, compared with 41 percent for McGrath.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,164 likely voters in Kentucky from September 10 to 14 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Mitch McConnell
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell speaks during a debate with Democratic challenger Amy McGrath on October 12 in Lexington, Kentucky. Pool/Getty

In addition to putting McConnell ahead of McGrath, these polls found that more Kentucky voters said they have a favorable view of the Senate majority leader, compared with his challenger.

The Cygnal poll had 49.5 percent of respondents saying they have a favorable view of McConnell, compared with 41 percent that said the same for McGrath.

In the Mason-Dixon poll, 44 percent of respondents said they have a favorable view of McConnell, while 32 percent said the same for the Democratic challenger.

Forty-four percent of respondents in the Quinnipiac poll said they have a favorable view of McConnell, while 34 percent said the same for McGrath.

The polls' findings come shortly after McGrath wrote an op-ed in the Lexington Herald Leader, which she called her "closing argument," amid the final week before the election.

In the op-ed, McGrath criticized McConnell, saying that he "could find $500 billion for a slush fund for big corporations and $250 billion in tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, but apparently there are no resources for Kentucky as families and small businesses continue to struggle."

"Sen. McConnell is right about one thing: I'm a Marine, a mom, and he's been there too long. This election is about the future of Kentucky, our democracy, and our country. Let's work together to rebuild Kentucky stronger than before," McGrath wrote.

Terry Sebastian, senior communications strategist for McGrath, told Newsweek, "The election will come down to who is energized to come out to the polls. Fortunately, it has never been easier to vote in Kentucky than it is this year, and we expect record turnout, particularly among those who don't typically vote or who have been historically disenfranchised."

Based on the campaign's data, Sebastian said, McGrath is leading with voters who did not vote in 2016, 2018 or 2019, with 57 percent; Black voters, with 91 percent; young voters, with 66 percent; and newly registered voters, with 56 percent.

"Amy is also leading with women, with 56 percent of the vote, who are voting at a higher rate than men overall," Sebastian said.

Newsweek reached out to McConnell for comment but did not receive a response in time for publication.

This story was updated to include a statement from Terry Sebastian, a spokesman for Amy McGrath.