What the Polls Say About Tommy Tuberville vs. Doug Jones Alabama Senate Race

As the race for Alabama's Senate seat forges ahead, polling data shows that political newcomer Tommy Tuberville is in a good position to challenge vulnerable Democrat Doug Jones in November.

Tuberville, a former college football coach, won the Republican nomination on Tuesday night after a contested runoff against former Attorney General Jeff Sessions. At the time the race was called, Tuberville was ahead by 25 points.

His victory was also a big boost for President Donald Trump, who gave Tuberville his full endorsement while repeatedly expressing his antipathy toward Sessions—a feud that began when Sessions recused himself from the FBI's Russia investigation. The result of the runoff was a sign that Trump is retaining some grip over Republican voters even though his popularity has declined in recent weeks due to the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic recession.

"Tommy Tuberville WON big against Jeff Sessions. Will be a GREAT Senator for the incredible people of Alabama. @DougJones is a terrible Senator who is just a Super Liberal puppet for Schumer & Pelosi. Represents Alabama poorly. On to November 3rd" Trump tweeted Tuesday night.

Senator Jones is considered one of the most vulnerable lawmakers up for re-election this fall. He was the first Democrat to win in deep-red Alabama in decades in a 2017 special election against Roy Moore. Even against the scandal-ridden Moore campaign, which included accusations of sexual assault and misconduct against teenage girls, Jones only won by 2 points.

The most recent polling data of the 2020 Senate race, all of which was conducted before Tuesday's runoff, showed the Republican candidate holding an advantage over Jones.

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A survey conducted by Auburn University at Montgomery earlier this month found Tuberville ahead by 8 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup with Jones. Of the 558 registered voters polled, 44 percent said they would back Tuberville, while 36 percent said they would back Jones.

But other surveys have shown Tuberville with a double-digit lead against Jones.

A poll from the conservative group Club for Growth, which endorsed Tuberville in the primary, found 50 percent of voters supported him while 40 percent supported Jones. A Cygnal survey from mid-June found Tuberville besting Jones statewide by 13 points.

For now, nonpartisan election forecasters estimate that the race will be a win for conservatives. The Cook Political Report is currently rating the election as "leaning Republican" and Sabato's Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia also deems the contest as "likely Republican."

Jones released a lengthy statement on Twitter after Tuberville was declared the winner of Tuesday's runoff that focused on his accomplishments and voting record as a senator. The list included his votes on tax relief, investments in rural healthcare and disaster relief for farmers.

"The choice before the voters is an unprepared hyper partisan that will add to the divide in Washington, or my proven track-record to find common ground and get things done," Jones tweeted.

Newsweek has reached out to both the Tuberville and Jones campaigns but did not receive a response by publication.

doug jones vs tommy tuberville polls
Senator Doug Jones (D-AL) speaks during the Martin & Coretta S. King Unity Breakfast on March 1, 2020 in Selma, Alabama. Jones will face a tough re-election this fall against Republican Tommy Tuberville. Joe Raedle/Getty
What the Polls Say About Tommy Tuberville vs. Doug Jones Alabama Senate Race | U.S.